Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
953 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FRONT MOVING INTO EAST TEXAS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST AR AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST TX AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH LOUISIANA BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY. SINCE MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WILL CANCEL THE WATCH. SEE NO
REASON TO EXPAND AS THE AREAS RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS HAVE HIGH FFG VALUES AND HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH RAIN
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. ANY ONGOING FLOODING SHOULD QUICKLY
COME TO END AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

HAVE LOADED CURRENT TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AND ADJUSTED MINS FOR
CURRENT TRENDS.

NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN EAST
TEXAS FOR THE HOUR REMAINING IN SEVERE WATCH 447...SO WILL
CANCEL.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING THE ARKLATEX...SVR WATCH TIL 04Z AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION IS IN FULL SWING NOW AHEAD OF A SPRING
LIKE COLD FRONT DRAPING JUST NORTH OF I-30. A FEW MORE SVR TSTMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 27/06Z. IN DOWNPOURS...EXPECT LIFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBY WITH GUSTS PERHAPS TOWARD 50-60 KTS ON BOW ECHOES WITH SMALL
HAIL. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FOR AT
LEAST A SHORT TIME TEMPOED. SOME DECKS MAY SET UP OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IMPROVING AFTER DAYBREAK WITH DRIER AIR AND NELY WINDS.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  90  70  95  72 /  30  40   0   0   0
MLU  72  88  68  93  69 / 100  60  10  10   0
DEQ  67  88  65  90  70 /  50  20   0   0  20
TXK  70  88  67  92  70 /  80  20   0   0  10
ELD  70  88  66  92  69 /  90  50   0   0   0
TYR  73  91  72  95  73 /  20  20   0   0   0
GGG  73  91  70  95  72 /  20  20  10  10   0
LFK  75  93  74  96  73 /  20  30  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO OVER TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENOUGH HEATING MAY
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL TRAINING OF STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ESPECIALLY TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS THE
SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO SOUTH LOUISIANA. HIGH
PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

06

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