Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
335 PM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MID AFTN TSTMS BEGIN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING...LACKING ANY REAL PATTERN
AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO WEAK BACKDOR COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL
AR...OR TO INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH SPARKED MUCH WEAKER
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN LA THIS MORNING. THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED NE TX AND SE OK...WERE IN MID TO
UPPER 90 DEGREE TEMPS...AND A FEW MARGINALLY SVR WIND REPORTS AND
ONE HAIL REPORT HAVE OCCURRED. WITH ISOLD STORMS DEVELOPING WELL
NORTH NEAR I-40...INDICATING STG COOLING IN NW FLOW ALOFT.
THUS...WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY TSTMS ALL EVENING...INCLUDING STG
WIND GUSTS. DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOR WEEKEND...THEN WILL ADD POPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR RETROGRADING PATTERN AS DEEP E-SE FLOW
BRINGING UPPER LOWS ACROSS REGION./VII/

&&

OUTSIDE OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THE
FOUR STATE REGION WILL HAVE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH MOST OF
THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
AND NEAR THE STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR
CONDITIONS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING STORMS MAY CARRY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF. HOWEVER FOR SOME OF THE SITES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20
AND ALONG INTERSTATE 30 THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM JUST NORTH
OF KESF TO NEAR KSHV AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS NEAR KOSA. THE MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 15 HND FEET POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12/09 UTC TO 12/14 UTC
AFFECTING KMLU...KSHV...KELD...AND KTXK. THERE MAY ALSO BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND NEAR THE 12/10 UTC TO 12/14 UTC TIME FRAME AS WELL
AND MAY CARRY VCSH IN TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
AN  EAST TO NORTHEAST IN WAKE OF THE SOUTHWEST MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  71  94  70 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  73  94  68  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  73  95  65  93  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  74  94  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  72  94  65  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  75  98  72  97  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  76 100  71  95  70 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  98  72  97  70 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1148 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-
121700-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
SABINE TX-
1148 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED....THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A BREAK ON
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-121700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-
1148 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

VII

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