Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
310 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE THE INSTABILITY
IS HIGHEST. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
WIND THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ON SUNDAY
AND THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD OVER THE
FOUR STATE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING BACK SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND. THIS
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 80S AREA WIDE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN.

NEXT BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH CHANCE...AS MODELS STILL HAVING A TIMING
ISSUE. CURRENT RUN IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...
SO WILL KEEP CHANCES AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND A CHANCE IN
THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE OF AN IDABEL OK TO MOUNT PLEASANT TO TYLER
TX LINE...PASSING THROUGH KTYR AND ALMOST THROUGH KGGG/KTXK AS OF
1930Z. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN ITS ADVANCE WITH
COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED ATTM. SCATTERED TS ACTIVITY STILL ANTICIPATED
INVOF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MARCHES EAST. TSRA POSSIBLE BY 21Z AT
KSHV...WITH KELD/KMLU/KLFK BEING IMPACTED AOA 28/00Z. MAINLY MVFR
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. EXPECT WNW WINDS
WITH FROPA AT KSHV AOA 27/23Z AND KLFK/KELD/KMLU BY 28/06Z. VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS BY 29/12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KLFK.
SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID MORNING AND DECREASING CLOUDS.
/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  80  57  82  60 /  30  10   0  10  10
MLU  60  77  56  82  58 /  40  30   0  10  10
DEQ  48  77  50  81  55 /  20   0   0  10  10
TXK  52  78  56  81  60 /  20   0   0  10  10
ELD  53  76  52  82  57 /  40  10   0  10  10
TYR  56  81  60  80  60 /  20  10  10   0   0
GGG  56  81  58  80  59 /  30  10  10   0   0
LFK  63  82  60  81  60 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

14/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1158 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-281100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-
RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-
1158 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
HELP CREATE THE CONVECTION. A STRONG INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM BEING TOO STRONG...SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE LIMITED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

ARZ071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ126-136>138-149>153-
165>167-281100-
LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-
LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-
SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MARION-SMITH-
GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1158 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE LIKELY TIME FOR THE SEVERE
WEATHER WOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS WELL
AS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
629 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

TXZ150>153-280030-
NACOGDOCHES-PANOLA-RUSK-SHELBY-
629 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 730 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN EASTERN TEXAS...
     NACOGDOCHES AND SHELBY...
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     PANOLA AND RUSK...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     CARTHAGE...GARRISON...TENAHA...TIMPSON AND TRAWICK...

AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF TRAWICK...OR 17
MILES NORTH OF NACOGDOCHES...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

05

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