Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
305 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOONS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFERS A NICE VIEW
OF THE SHARPLY ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH SPINNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. ALSO NOTICEABLE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

THE SURFACE BASED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST HAS SLOWLY BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. AS OF 19Z...IT WAS ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM
CONROE TO MARSHALL TEXAS...NORTHWARD TO MENA ARKANSAS. FOR
NOW...HAVE TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 89 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS COUNTIES. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD...EXPECT
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN ITS ADVANCE.

NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. WITH NEARLY 2000
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR IN PLACE ALREADY...ALL THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT NEEDS IS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT TO BREAK THE
SMALL CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THOSE AREAS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONGEAL AND FORM INTO MORE OF A SUBSTANTIAL LINE
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OTHER THAN ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT THIS EVENING...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW RUNS SOUTH TO NORTH...NOT PROVIDING MUCH OF AN
EASTWARD KICK TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A
BIT OF TRAINING OF STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A
POSSIBILITY.

LOOKING TO THE WEST...IN THE POST FRONTAL COOLER AIR
MASS...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST
MAY BE DEALING WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

A FEW DRY DAYS WILL FOLLOW THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING LATER THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
USHERS IN A FEW DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE AREA. OTHERWISE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY. /20/

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT IS WAY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...REMAINING VERY SHALLOW.
THE SFC FRONT EXTENDS FROM KTXK...TO NEAR KSHV...TO NEAR KLFK ATTM
WITH NW10G20KTS DISPLACING S/SE10G20KTS. THE WARM AND UNSTABLE DEEP
S/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FOR HRS OVER THE SFC FRONT KEEPING
ELEVATED SCAT/NUMEROUS TSTMS GOING THIS P.M. WITH HAIL UNTIL THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT. ANY SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY HOLD OUT FOR LATE DAY SUN OVER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY UP INTO KELD
AND EAST. THE SFC FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR A KMLU TO KAEX BY 11/06Z WITH
TSTMS ENDING W TO E 03-09Z. EXPECT STRONG WIND AND SEVERE TURBULENCE
WITH SOME HAIL AND IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THESE STORMS TODAY. AFTER
FROPA...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY IN -RA/BR 09-12Z WITH MVFR CIGS
BECMG SKC BY 15-18Z. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  63  43  73  47 /  90  20   0   0   0
MLU  54  66  45  71  45 /  90  50   0   0   0
DEQ  39  60  36  66  40 /  70  10   0   0  10
TXK  44  61  41  70  45 /  90  10   0   0  10
ELD  48  63  40  73  41 /  90  20   0   0   0
TYR  38  63  41  72  47 /  40  10   0   0   0
GGG  41  62  41  72  46 /  70  10   0   0   0
LFK  41  67  44  74  47 /  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

20/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1125 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-111200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1125 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS EAST AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG
A STRONG...BUT SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG A
TYLER TO MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS TO DEQUEEN ARKANSAS LINE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. BY LATE EVENING TO MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...POSSIBLY CLEARING EL DORADO
ARKANSAS AND MONROE LOUISIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...ALLOWING THIS AREA TO SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY BE ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHERE
2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST...SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE COOLER AIR MASS. WITH THIS ACTIVITY...SOME HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MUCH COLDER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

20

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
530 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

ARZ072-073-102300-
COLUMBIA-UNION-
530 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     COLUMBIA...
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
     UNION...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     MOUNT HOLLY...

AT 528 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT HOLLY...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF STEPHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
554 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

ARZ071-072-LAZ002-003-110000-
BOSSIER-COLUMBIA-LAFAYETTE-WEBSTER-
554 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES AND PARISHES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     COLUMBIA AND LAFAYETTE...
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     BOSSIER AND WEBSTER...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BUSSEY...EMERSON...MACEDONIA...MAGNOLIA...MCNEIL...SMITHLAND...
     TAYLOR...VILLAGE...WALDO...WELCOME...COTTON VALLEY...CULLEN...
     SAREPTA...SHONGALOO AND SPRINGHILL...

AT 550 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF BENTON...OR 12 MILES
NORTH OF BOSSIER CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. ALSO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

20