Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
434 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FCST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SRN PLAINS MCS 24 HOURS AGO IS
NOW JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS PROVIDED JUST
ENOUGH ASCENT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY/S
CONVECTION TO INITIATE WIDELY SCT TSTMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
ACROSS N CNTRL LA IN THE VICINITY OF A THETA-E RIDGE. WEAK MID-
LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR SLOW MOVEMENT AND MERGING OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS INTO CLUSTERS. COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS HAS LED TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY ACROSS
THE ERN ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS COLLAPSE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE ESEWD AND EVENTUALLY OUT
OF THE CWA BY LATE MORNING.

THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THE CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS SRN
OK/N TX. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT AN MCV IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN KSPS AND I-20. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ALSO VISIBLE ON
KFWS RADAR LOOPS AND IS BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX. THE MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NE
SIDE OF THE MCV AND MAY JUST GRAZE THE NW ZONES. ACTIVITY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN MORE SCT IN NATURE AND
INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
TRENDS WERE PICKED UP QUITE WELL BY THE HI-RES HRRR AND WRF
MODELS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF STILL PORTRAYED AN MCS
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A SCENARIO
WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THUS...CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT WAS PUT
INTO THE HI-RE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF FCST PERIODS.

GIVEN THE LACK OF VERIFICATION AND POOR INITIALIZATIONS THUS FAR OF
THE LARGER SCALE OPERATIONAL MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE MCV...THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...AND COLD FRONT WILL ALL ARRIVE IN THE AREA AT ABOUT THE
SAME TIME. COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES SE AWAY FROM THE AREA.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED BEYOND FRIDAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PACKAGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW CONUS AMPLIFIES THE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND BUILD
OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIM-TO-NONE CATEGORY AND WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPS TO GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MID 90S.

RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WILL BE KEY FOR TEMPERATURES
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LOWER THAN
EXPECTED...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FCSTS BEYOND MONDAY COULD VERY
WELL BE TOO LOW. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AS EXPECTED IN THE
VCNTY OF A FEW OF OUR TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHV/MLU
TERMINALS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH VICINITY WORDING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
PERHAPS WITH A TEMPO GROUP OR TWO WARRANTED WHERE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. ONCE THESE STORMS DECAY...OBVIOUSLY STRONG
GUSTS WINDS WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALONG WITH A QUICK REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY WITH SMALL HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE VERY
LOCALIZED WITH AN AMD PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS IN THE
12Z TAF PACKAGE. CONVECTION SHOULD LOSE ITS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  67  86  66  90 /  60  30  10  10  10
MLU  88  65  86  65  90 /  60  40  20  10  10
DEQ  83  58  85  60  87 /  50  20  10  10  10
TXK  84  63  84  63  87 /  60  20  10  10  10
ELD  87  63  85  62  88 /  50  40  10  10  10
TYR  84  64  85  64  90 /  60  20  10  10  10
GGG  85  65  86  64  90 /  60  20  10  10  10
LFK  88  67  88  64  91 /  50  30  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
606 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONE ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND
SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO REGION ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

09

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

LAZ002-011-012-060645-
BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-RED RIVER-
111 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 AM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     RED RIVER...BOSSIER AND BIENVILLE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     RINGGOLD...

AT 110 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST WEST OF RINGGOLD OR NEAR LAKE
BISTINEAU. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
120 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

LAZ006-014-060715-
OUACHITA-UNION-
120 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 AM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
     UNION AND OUACHITA...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...CLAIBORNE...MONROE...RICHWOOD AND WEST
     MONROE...

AT 120 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST MONROE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
507 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

LAZ018>020-061030-
GRANT-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
507 AM CDT THU JUN 6 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 AM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     NATCHITOCHES...
IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
     GRANT AND WINN...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     COLFAX AND MONTGOMERY...

AT 507 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MONTGOMERY...OR
14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINNFIELD. THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS DRIFTING
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

13

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