Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
311 AM PDT THU SEP 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
CONTINUING MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A STRONG COASTAL EDDY MAY
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS MORNING AS THE MARINE
LAYER DEEPENS UP AGAINST THE COASTAL SLOPES. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
THE EDDY WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY...AND WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS NEVADA. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DRYING AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT SHOWED THE MARINE CLOUDS HAVING
DIFFICULTY COALESCING INTO A SOLID LAYER. MODERATE ONSHORE GRADIENTS
CONTINUED TO THE DESERTS BUT HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WERE CONTINUING AT SELECT
WINDY SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAIN PASSES AND NEAR THE DESERT FOOTHILLS AS
OF 10Z.

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH 8 AM PDT. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN UNDER CRITERIA...
BUT MODELS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASING...ALONG WITH THE MAIN
COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z SO THERE WILL BE SUPPORT
FOR STRONG...NEAR CRITERIA WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS.

IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY AND CONTINUED BREEZY. THE LOCAL WRFEMS SHOWS
A STRONG EDDY CIRCULATION CONTINUING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKENING
BY EVENING. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES. BUT THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF THE CLOUD LAYER AND LOW
DEW POINTS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DRIZZLE...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THE
LOWER COASTAL SLOPES WHERE THE MOISTURE IS FORCED UPWARD. CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER.

A DEEP...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND
SWING EAST ON FRI. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED TODAY AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH AXIS...THEN RECOVERS RAPIDLY INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS TURN
NORTH AND THEN NE BEHIND THE TROUGH AND THERE IS SOME SUPPORT
ALOFT...MAINLY ON FRI...BUT GRADIENT AND THERMAL SUPPORT IS QUITE
MODEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH IS
VERY WEAK. THE WESTERLIES THEN CONSOLIDATE FAR TO THE NORTH AROUND A
DEEP UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS TO RISE ACROSS SOCAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
WARM AND SUNNY DAYS THROUGH AT LEAST MON.

GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE SOLUTIONS DO DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. IN ANY CASE...
THE WEATHER WOULD LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A BIT
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
261000Z...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE COASTAL
BASIN AND UP THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES. BASES WILL VARY FROM 2500-4500
FEET ASL WITH PATCHY FOG AND PRECIP ON THOSE MOUNTAIN SLOPES THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ADJACENT DESERTS WITH LOCAL BLOWING DUST IN THE DESERT
REDUCING VIS THROUGH 18Z. BY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BELOW CAJON PASS AND INTO VCNTY KONT.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND WEST
OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
TODAY...BUT WILL BE DECREASING AFTER THIS MORNING. RH SHOULD BE
ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH
NEAR 5000 FEET MSL...AND IN THE TEENS OVER THE DESERTS.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND BRING A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS. WIND GUSTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
20-30 MPH RANGE...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
AREAS BELOW THE CAJON PASS...THROUGH THE SANTA ANA CANYONS...AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. DAY-TIME HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE INLAND EMPIRE...AND THEN FALL
INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST. ONLY POOR TO MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER FOR A FEW
HOURS FRI AND SAT WHEN THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR THE APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN
     CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JAD

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