Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS San Diego, CA

767 
WGUS76 KSGX 292048
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
148 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

CAC065-292330-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-130829T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RIVERSIDE CA-
148 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY...

AT 400 PM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE LAST HOUR.  THIS 
STORM IS NEAR THE JUNCTION OF STATE ROUTE 74 AND 371.  FLASH 
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ROADS IN THE AREA...INCLUDING THE 
STATE ROUTES 74 AND 371.  THIS STORM DRAINS TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN 
EDGE OF THE MOUNTAIN FIRE BURN SCAR...SO DEBRIS FLOWS CANNOT BE 
RULED OUT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ANZA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE WATERSHEDS BURNED THIS FALL ARE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS DURING RAINSTORMS. A SHORT PERIOD OF EVEN
MODERATE RAINFALL ON A BURNED WATERSHED CAN LEAD TO DEBRIS FLOWS. 
THE HIGHLY ERODIBLE SOILS IN A BURN SCAR ALLOW FLOOD WATERS TO 
ENTRAIN LARGE AMOUNTS OF ASH, MUD...BOULDERS...AND UNBURNED 
VEGETATION. WITHIN THE BURNED AREA AND DOWNSTREAM...THE FORCE OF 
RUSHING WATER...SOIL AND ROCK CAN DESTROY 
CULVERTS...BRIDGES...ROADWAYS AND BUILDINGS...POTENTIALLY CAUSING 
INJURY OR DEATH.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 11671 3371 11652 3362 11648 3352 11636
      3345 11646 3347 11663 3355 11673

$$

PALMER

491 
WGUS76 KSGX 292141
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
241 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

CAC065-292330-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-130829T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RIVERSIDE CA-
241 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY...

AT 400 PM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE 
WARNED AREA.  CALTRANS IS REPORTING ROCKS IN THE ROADWAY ALONG 
HIGHWAY 74 AND 371.  ADDITIONAL RUNOFF MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ANZA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO FLASH FLOODING...RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DEBRIS
FLOWS IN RECENT BURN AREAS ACCORDING TO THRESHOLDS PROVIDED BY THE
USGS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 11671 3371 11652 3362 11648 3352 11636
      3345 11646 3347 11663 3355 11673

$$

PALMER

340 
WGUS76 KSGX 292222
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
322 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

CAC065-292330-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-130829T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RIVERSIDE CA-
322 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY...

AT 400 PM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER THE SAME AREA NEAR THE 
JUNCTION OF HIGHWAYS 74 AND 371.  HEAVY RAIN FALL AS WELL AS FLASH 
FLOODING AND ROCK SLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.  HOURLY 
RAINFALL RATES ARE ESTIMATING 1 INCH IN THE LAST HOUR...WITH STORM 
TOTAL ESTIMATES OVER 2.5 INCHES SINCE AROUND 130 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ANZA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 11671 3371 11652 3362 11648 3352 11636
      3345 11646 3347 11663 3355 11673

$$

PALMER

782 
WGUS76 KSGX 292327
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
427 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

CAC065-292334-
/O.EXP.KSGX.FF.W.0045.000000T0000Z-130829T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RIVERSIDE CA-
427 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM PDT FOR SOUTH 
CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING OVER HIGHWAY 74 AND 371 THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS.  THEREFORE...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 430 PM.  
HOWEVER...ROCKS IN THE ROADWAY HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND DRY WASHES 
AND CREEKS IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE RUNNING HIGH THROUGH THIS 
EVENING.  


LAT...LON 3369 11671 3371 11652 3362 11648 3352 11636
      3345 11646 3347 11663 3355 11673

$$

PALMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
120 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
STEER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT BEFORE REDEVELOPING BACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON
FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN GRADUALLY THIN SATURDAY AS
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES. SOME DRYING AND REESTABLISHMENT OF A
MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER ONSHORE FLOW
BUT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER WARM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER AREAS OF THE CWA. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAD ALLOWED
SOME TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE VALLEYS TOWARD THE COAST. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE NEUTRAL TO THE DESERTS SO THERE WAS LITTLE
SEA BREEZE. SFC WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 10-20 MPH OVER THE FAR INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS SUPPORTING SFC CONVERGENCE
IN THE VALLEYS. IT WAS WARM AND QUITE HUMID WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S
AND 90S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WEST OF THE MTNS AND IN THE
70S IN THE LOWER DESERTS.

THE VERY HIGH PW OVER THE DESERTS SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THERE AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OUR
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE TROPICAL. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS OVER THE DESERTS AND ADJACENT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE THE
ABUNDANCE OF HIGHER CLOUDS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ACTIVE ALL MORNING
OVER NORTHERN BAJA...AND WAS SPREADING NW INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AT
1 PM PDT THE CWA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE DESERTS...MOUNTAINS...AND VALLEYS. PLEASE SEE
LAXFFASGX.

MODELS ARE TRACKING...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE OVER NW MEXICO THAT WILL MOVE NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE MASSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES TONIGHT
AND MOVES OVER THE REGION ON FRI...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE PERSISTENT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT AND ON FRI...BUT INTENSE CONVECTION MAY BE
SUBDUED FRI DUE TO THE LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AXIS. CONTINUED WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP INTO LABOR DAY.

THE WELL DEVELOPED SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
IT MIGRATES SLOWLY WEST...AND THEN BACK TO THE EAST LATER IN THE
WEEK. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...AND VARYING DEGREES
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ALONG THE COAST...SOME REDEVELOPMENT
OF THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST AREAS OF MARINE STRATUS TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER COASTAL AREAS...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT...LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
282000Z...THROUGH 30/0100 UTC NUMEROUS SHRA WITH VSBY 4-6SM SCT TSTM
WITH VSBY 2SM +SHRA GR...SCT BASES 2000 FT MSL...BKN BASES 6000 FT
MSL...BKN-OVC LAYERS BETWEEN 10000-30000 FT MSL...ISOLD TOPS TO
FL500...FRZLVL 15000 FT MSL. MOGR MIXED ICG. MTNS OBSCD IN CLDS/WX.

AFTER 30/0100 UTC...SHRA/TSTM ENDING OVER LAND AREAS BUT CONTG OVER
WATER...OTRW SCT CLDS BELOW 10000 FT MSL AND BKN-SCT CLDS BETWEEN
10000 AND 25000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
TIJUANA RIVER...EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE FROM SAN MATEO POINT
SOUTHWARD BY 1800 PDT THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDING
WITH THE WANING SEA BREEZE MAY REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUNSET...THEN INTERACTION BETWEEN SUBSEQUENT CELLS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COLLIDING WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY
CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE ISSUED A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WHICH IS VALID THROUGH 11AM FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...
     SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS.

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION...BALFOUR
SEVERE WEATHER...HARRISON/TARDY/JJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1230 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

CAZ048-050-055-056-058-060>062-300200-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-SAN
DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE
VALLEYS-COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
1230 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. SMALLER CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN WEATHER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA.

JAD