Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS San Diego, CA

411 
WGUS76 KSGX 230324
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
824 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

CAC073-230430-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130823T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN DIEGO CA-
824 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM PDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY...

AT 812 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OCOTILLO
WELLS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 11634 3322 11628 3327 11611 3310 11611
      3283 11612

$$

SMALL

309 
WGUS76 KSGX 230425
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
925 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

CAC073-230433-
/O.EXP.KSGX.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-130823T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN DIEGO CA-
925 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM PDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
SAN DIEGO COUNTY...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAVE 
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED 
TO EXPIRE AT 930 PM. SOME RESIDUAL RUNOFF AND LOCAL PONDING CAN 
STILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 


LAT...LON 3281 11634 3322 11628 3327 11611 3310 11611
      3283 11612

$$

SMALL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
COASTAL CLOUDS WILL BE REDUCED AND SO WILL THE CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OVER THE WEEKEND A SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND MUGGY NEXT WEEK. FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THE RAIN CHANCES APPEAR MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MORE VERTICAL GROWTH TO CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY... RADAR/VISUAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PULSE TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RAPID GROWTH AND DECAY.  HIGH CLOUD BASES...AT
OR ABOVE 12000 FEET AND DRY SUB CLOUD SO SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN
LIKELY...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES LIKELY.
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS SHOW SEVERAL RECENT STRIKES IN VICINITY
OF TWENTY NINE PALMS. APPEARS THE INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
FROM THE TAIL END OF TROUGH MOVING EAST AND CROSSING LONGITUDE 122 W
AT THIS TIME IS THE CULPRIT. HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN GRIDS
BUT AREAL COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH TO BE PICKED UP BY GFE FORMATTER.

LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
FRIDAY...WARMER... DRIER AND MORE STABLE.
SATURDAY...REINTRODUCED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING OVER DESERT
SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS/LOWER DESERTS...OTHERWISE WARM AND HUMID WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...RESIDUAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
222000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12000 FT WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
RETURN TO THE SAN DIEGO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. IF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DO RETURN...IT WILL BE AFTER 10Z WITH
BASES BLO 900 FT AND LOCAL VIS BLO 3SM.

MTNS/DESERTS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 12000 FT AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS
AND DESERTS. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE
SAN BERNARDO AND SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO MTNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...NO RAINFALL OF SIGNIFICANCE. FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AM USING CALIFORNIA-NEVADA
RIVER FORECAST CENTER GUIDANCE...WHICH YIELDS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER INCH FROM COAST TO COASTAL SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS...AND 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OVER RIDGES/DESERT SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT VALLEYS. CREATED FFP GRIDS FOR SUNDAY...AND
CAME UP WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING DESERT SLOPES OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS/WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...ANZA
BORREGO DESERT AND COACHELLA VALLEY. MODELS STILL HAVE MAJOR
DIFFERENCES ON HANDLING THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM IVO
WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE 22/12Z GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS SHIFTED THE
CORE OF THE REMNANTS FURTHER EAST...EFFECTIVELY MISSING EASTERN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY/WESTERN RIVERSIDE/SW SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...BUT NAILED
IMPERIAL COUNTY AND THE EASTERN THIRD RIVERSIDE COUNTY WITH AMOUNTS
FROM 2.5 TO PLUS 4 INCHES...A SOLUTION VERY SIMILAR TO MODEL RUNS
FROM TWO DAYS AGO. THE ECMWF MODEL CONSISTENTLY HAS BEEN SHOWING
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OVER ANY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE ATTM.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...BALFOUR
AVIATION/MARINE...PG
SHORT TERM WARNINGS...SMALL/PALMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
320 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-PZZ750-775-232230-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
30 NM-
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND-
320 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SATURDAY...A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AND DESERTS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD MORE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH A GREATER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL AREAS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

PALMER