Blowing Dust Advisory 2, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
124 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE GREATEST INFLUX SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY BY MONDAY...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOK LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERLIES
RETREAT FARTHER TO THE NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE STRATUS MADE A GOOD RUN INLAND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST
AND WAS HOLDING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT SOME BEACHES UNDER A
STRONG INVERSION AT 1 PM PDT. WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENTS WERE PRESENT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STREETS OF CU STREAMING NW THROUGH THE
IMPERIAL AND COACHELLA VALLEYS...AND A FEW VERY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SUGGESTS THE HIGH DEWPOINT LAYER IS DEEPENING
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATEST GPS SOUNDERS SHOW PWS APPROACHING TWO
INCHES IN THE LOWER DESERTS ALREADY. DEWPOINTS HAVE JUMPED
CONSIDERABLY FROM LEVELS THIS MORNING AT RAWS SITES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT MORE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER STRATUS WILL BE DISRUPTED AND LESS
WIDESPREAD OVER COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM AGAIN INLAND AND NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST BUT WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS INTO MON. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT BASICALLY EXPECTING A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS SUN. AND BECOMING STORMY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
INTO THE DESERTS AS THE DEEP MOIST LAYER CONVECTS UNDER THE STRONG
AUGUST SUN. THERE MAY BE COMPLEX BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOWS SET UP FROM
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WHERE HIGH DEWPOINT AIR WILL LIKELY FEED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES IN STRONG CONVECTION.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MON AS
TROPICAL STORM IVO DRIFTS NORTH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS STORM
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WELL SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO...
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVER
SOCAL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS. FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...
WIDESPREAD DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/SHOWERS/AND SCATTERED TSTMS.
CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT INTENSE CONVECTION AND RESULT IN A MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN PATTERN. GIVEN THE DEEP SATURATION OF THE AIRMASS
THOUGH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS WHERE THE AIRMASS IS LIFTED.
POPS ARE HIGH OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND LOWER TOWARD THE COAST
WHERE THE FORCING IS HARDER TO PINPOINT. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR WIDESPREAD MOD/HEAVY RAINFALL.

SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY AFTER MON...AS THE REMNANTS OF
IVO EXIT THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE MTNS/DESERTS. NO BIG CHANGES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES. PERIODIC
SURGES OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARE POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS/DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
242030Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LINGERING AT THE BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON. BASES ARE BETWEEN 700 AND 1000 FT MSL AND TOPS ARE
BETWEEN 800 AND 1200 FT MSL. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AFTER 06Z WITH SIMILAR BASES AND
TOPS...BUT MAY NOT IMPACT COASTAL TAF SITES. IF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AREAS...THEY WILL LIKELY CLEAR BY 17Z SUN.

OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10000 FT.

MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MTNS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTN/EVENING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS LAYERED 3000 FT TO 35000
FT...DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...PG

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