Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
811 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2013

...Storms Increasing Overnight...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued AT 8 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

Only isolated convection had developed across the area through the
late afternoon and evening hours. Despite moderate to strong
instability there has been little in the way of forcing to ignite
thunderstorm development.

A cluster of thunderstorms had developed this evening across south
central Kansas. Expect this convection to evolve into a convective
complex as it tracks eastward and encounters an axis of stronger
instability and rich moisture. Mixed layer cape of 3000 to 5000
J/KG were depicted from far southwestern Missouri into south
central Kansas.

Despite weak synoptic scale lift a strengthening low level jet
interacting with the instability/moisture axis will maintain if
not intensify the convection during the late evening hours. 0-3
KM bulk shear vectors will be oriented normal to the advancing
complex suggesting localized damaging winds will be possible
within bowing segments surging to the east.

This storm complex will arrive to extreme southeastern Kansas and
far southwestern Missouri toward and after 11 PM. Additional
thunderstorm development will be possible during the evening hours
out ahead of this complex as the low level jet strengthens. Expect
a general increase in thunderstorm coverage across all of the
Missouri Ozarks overnight.

The 00z sounding shows precipitable water values near 2 inches.
This will lead to torrential rainfall rates with any storm. The
risk for flash flooding will have to be closely monitored
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

The flat ridge over the southern states is expected to amplify
slightly on its western end and retrograde westward in response to a
short wave moving around the Hudson Bay low.  This will allow the
surface front to sag to near the Missouri-Arkansas border by late
Saturday into Sunday. This will act as a focus for several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms that will produce locally heavy
rainfall. With instability and shear profiles as they are, strong
to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening
cannot be ruled out.

However, the larger threat remains heavy rain.  With soils already
saturated from rains earlier this week, it will not take much
rainfall to create a lot of run off.  The combination of high
precipitable water values, a nocturnal low level jet, and subtle short
waves in the northwest flow interacting with the surface front and
any outflow boundaries should create several rounds of moderate to
heavy rains through the weekend. The heaviest rain area will be
situated along a Warsaw to West Plains line.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

The pattern will continue through the remainder of the period. By
Monday, the surface front will stall and meander over the Arkansas
region before it eventually washes out. Yet another front
approaches on Wednesday to provide yet another round of rain,
which stays around through the remainder of the forecast period.

Rainfall amounts, at this time, do not look to be as heavy as
expected this weekend, but are forecast to fall of the same area
as this weekend's rainfall. Will continue to monitor this situation.

Temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal for daytime
highs, but slightly above normal for overnight lows due to the
high dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

Widely scattered convection occurring at this time along boundaries
left over from this morning's convection. Right now, this is only
affecting KJLN, but could affect KSGF and KBBG within the next
couple of hours. Anticipating convection to fire out west at
any time. If this occurs, expect this activity to move within the
aerodromes after 03z. Expect generally VFR conditions with MVFR
conditions in the vicinity of the stronger thunderstorms.

Convective activity should then begin to move out of the area
after about 08z. Would expect VFR conditions through the remainder
of the forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Multiple rounds of rain/thunderstorms appear increasingly likely
over the next several days across the region. Rainfall through the
weekend across the region looks to range in the 1-3 inch range,
with the potential for higher local amounts depending on the track
of thunderstorms. This heavy rain, combined with very saturated
soils, will result in a considerable flash flood threat for the
next several days. A Flash Flood Watch continues from this afternoon
through Monday morning. In addition to the flash flood threat,
many area rivers will likely rise to or above flood stage at some
point in the next several days.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Gaede
SHORT TERM...Gaede
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Gaede
HYDROLOGY...Gaede

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
727 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040030-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
727 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL
  LIGHTING WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
  KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN
  MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL INITIALLY IMPACT AREAS
  ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 49...OR ALONG AND WEST OF A JOPLIN
  TO NEVADA LINE AFTER 11 PM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
  WEST ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

  THESE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES WHICH
  COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE
  DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR
  HEAVY RAIN AGAIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
  HOURS ON SUNDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
  MONDAY MORNING.

  ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY THEN OCCUR DURING THE
  EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE
  AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN
  MISSOURI DURING THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
 SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
901 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

MOZ057-070-071-030245-
MILLER MO-PHELPS MO-PULASKI MO-
901 PM CDT FRI AUG 2 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PULASKI...
SOUTHEASTERN MILLER AND WEST CENTRAL PHELPS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

AT 858 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF CROCKER...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CROCKER...DIXON...DOOLITTLE AND NEWBURG.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 160 AND 179 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THIS STORM.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3807 9218 3802 9218 3801 9200 3797 9188
      3784 9187 3776 9202 3797 9235 3810 9227
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 299DEG 18KT 3799 9223

HATCH