Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1219 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WE'VE HAD IN A
FEW YEARS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE HAVE SEVERAL PERIODS WHERE WE
CAN IDENTIFY RAIN POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD IMPROVE THE DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE ONGOING.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SAGGING
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. I'M NOT SURE HOW MUCH
FORCING THIS FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH MINIMAL
LIFT...SCATTERED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

A TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA...HOLDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.60 TO 1.80
INCHES. MEANWHILE...NO INHIBITION LAYERS ARE EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...AND MIXED LAYER CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG.
THESE INGREDIENTS WILL PROMOTE PULSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. LIKE YESTERDAY...THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

FOR TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX UNFOLDING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND ATTEMPTING TO REACH THE
OZARKS SUNDAY MORNING. I'M NOT SURE IF THESE STORMS MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT'S ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE IT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS STILL IN
PLACE...THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER A DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCE MIGRATING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW POSITIONED OVER THE OZARKS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SURE MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST...SINCE TIMING THESE SUBTLE WAVES DAYS IN ADVANCE IS
TOUGH.

THE SUMMERTIME HIGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL MITIGATE TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING OUT OF CONTROL...WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED ON
BOTH AN AFTERNOON AND NIGHTLY BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BUT ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE TEMPORARY DROPS IN VIS DUE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS TO MENTION THIS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
STARTING OFF WESTERLY BECOMING VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY NIGHT HOURS AND TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR VIS DUE TO TSRA. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 04Z THIS EVENING BUT REDEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CRAMER
LONG TERM...CRAMER
AVIATION...GRIFFIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S AND APPROACH 100 DEGREES
  THIS AFTERNOON.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
  EVENING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A FEW
  OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY
  THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE OZARKS WILL BECOME POSITIONED
  WITHIN A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR BOTH NOCTURNAL AND AFTERNOON
  THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

MOZ094-201900-
LAWRENCE MO-
111 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOBERG...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF
MOUNT VERNON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AURORA...FREISTATT...HOBERG AND VERONA.

LAT...LON 3693 9383 3704 9395 3710 9385 3710 9369
      3694 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 324DEG 5KT 3703 9380

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

MOZ096-201900-
DOUGLAS MO-
134 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 200
PM CDT...

AT 130 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRUSHYKNOB...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF AVA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AVA AND BRUSHYKNOB.

LAT...LON 3695 9268 3707 9264 3707 9255 3706 9243
      3696 9240 3688 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 317DEG 4KT 3701 9253

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

MOZ090-095-201930-
CHRISTIAN MO-GREENE MO-
201 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BILLINGS...OR 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
REPUBLIC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY UP
TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BILLINGS...CLEVER AND REPUBLIC.

LAT...LON 3715 9361 3716 9354 3714 9347 3707 9346
      3700 9347 3699 9349 3700 9350 3700 9360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 295DEG 4KT 3707 9354

GRIFFIN