Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

SPOTTY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN EAST OF A PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL LOW/SHEAR AXIS FROM THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MO. ML CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A
STRONGER PULSE STORM OR TWO...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF
QUICKLY AFTER TOWARD OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.

LIKE LAST NIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG
THE EDGE OF A VEERING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND
HAVE LOW POP SHOWERS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWFA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. OUR PESKY/PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
SPREADING EAST INTO THE AREA WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE. NOT GOING TO
RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES ENTIRELY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT NOT LOOKING
AT MUCH THROUGH MONDAY AS OVERALL BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE PROGS SHOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN MOVING A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MIDWEST BY LATE
TUE/WED...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST.
RAIN/TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUE NIGHT INTO WED/THU AS A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT EASES SOUTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF LOWERING IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...WISE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1253 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.

DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND THE EASTERN OZARKS EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. A
LOCALIZED STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY COMMON OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

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