Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Springfield, MO

215 
WWUS53 KSGF 091142
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
642 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

MOC097-091153-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-130509T1215Z/
JASPER MO-
642 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JASPER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3716 9454 3735 9428 3735 9414 3735 9408
      3729 9408 3729 9405 3705 9406 3705 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 234DEG 37KT 3730 9420 3720 9412

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

LINEAR MCS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WAS SHIFTING
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WAS NOW
LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL JET HAS AIDED IN ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS MORNING OVER FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TRACK INTO THE
AREA. THIS SHOULD TRACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TOWARDS MID
MORNING AND THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE
WANING BY THAT POINT. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK TOO WEAK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

FOR TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SWING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. WOULD EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE THE HIGHEST
QPF TOTALS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THEN SPREADING EAST ALONG THE
MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES AND THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY FRONT/SHORTWAVE PUSH
THROUGH. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SECONDARY
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING.

THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED THIS TIME WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

NORTHERN END OF A LINEAR MCS WAS PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF MO AS OF 1115Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT JLN THROUGH THE FIRST
HOUR-HOUR AND A HALF OF THE TAF WITH CONVECTION SPREADING EAST
TOWARDS SGF/BBG BY 13-14Z. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST OF
THE TAF SITES...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ENOUGH FOR TO BE INCLUDED IN TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
355 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-100900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
355 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO EXTREME
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. SOME OF
  THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND
  SMALL HAIL...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY THE
  MID TO LATE MORNING

  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
  POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
  OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
  EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG