Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

WARM FRONT SURGED NORTH THIS MORNING AND HAS LIFTED JUST NORTH OF
THE CWA WITH BOUNDARY SEPARATING UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
TEMPERATURES FROM MID TO UPPER 50S AIR. FRONT THEN EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. SOME
MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE DEPTH OF THE
SOUNDING (SEE SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING) WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. SOME WEAK CIN STILL PRESENT AND VERY
MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES. HAVE SOME CONVECTION THAT FIRED
OVER THE PAST 90-120 MINUTES IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI BUT NOT SEEING MUCH OTHER DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. COULD
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 1/2
TO THIRD OF THE CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE.

MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH SEVERE STORMS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IN EASTERN KANSAS AND SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
FOR THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN SPREADING EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND 110-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AS IT TRAVERSES SLOWLY EASTWARD
TONIGHT. LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND
STRONG CONVECTION...TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO
PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

ON THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE PRIMARY
SEVERE RISK OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. AGAIN..CANT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THE
PRIMARY RISK OVER OUR CWA WILL BE FROM THE MORNING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA BY 19-21Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
FROST POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BY SURFACE WINDS BOTH NIGHTS AND BY
CLOUD COVER THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FROST
FOR NOW IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK ENERGY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. A
STRONGER WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME WHICH WILL OFFER A BETTER CHANCE AT CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013

ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH
OF ALL 3 TAF SITES WHICH ARE NOW FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD
HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. MORE FAVORABLE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND PLAN ON KEEPING JLN
WITHIN A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN SHOW FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER
05Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS TO KICK THE COLD FRONT
EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE LIKELY FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS
UNTIL THE CONVECTION BEGINS AND THEN IFR/LIFR BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-088>091-093-094-101-102.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-182100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
349 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

* WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
  OVER THE WESTERN AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR OF
  WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH...FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
  PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

  AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE
  TONIGHT...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS
  EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST
  CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER 10 PM AND WILL APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 65
  CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
  RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. THERE WILL
  ALSO BE A THREAT FOR A ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
  LINE.

  FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS
  WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
  EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THAT LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
  ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS ON THURSDAY.
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
  ALL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO
  BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN
  THIS LINE.

  THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH
  STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE AND A HALF TO OVER
  THREE INCHES EXPECTED. RESIDUAL FLOODING MAY THEN PERSIST
  INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAIN STEM
  RIVER FLOODING.

  NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON
  THURSDAY AS A SHARPLY COLDER AIRMASS SPREADS OVER THE REGION
  BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT. FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
  THEN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
  NEXT WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
  UNITED STATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EXTREME
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND THEN LATE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN
  MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
335 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     HAIL             4 S WARSAW              38.18N 93.37W
04/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             8 S WARSAW              38.13N 93.40W
04/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
347 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     HAIL             HARPER                  38.06N 93.52W
04/17/2013  E0.50 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

KARDELL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             4 SSE WARSAW            38.19N 93.36W
04/17/2013  M1.75 INCH       BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

            TIME OF EVENT ESTIMATED.

&&

KARDELL