Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

The warm and humid airmass that has been over the region for about
a week was still in place this morning with lows only falling into
the upper 70s with 80 degrees noted at Joplin at 330 am. We'll see
temperatures climb quickly into the 90s today with heat indexes
reaching around the 100 degree mark, as moisture pools ahead of
an approaching cold front.

The cold front is then expected to begin to push into the Ozarks
and southeastern Kansas this afternoon. As the front moves into
the region, CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg will be in place.
While this will allow for scattered shower and thunderstorm
development, there will be little to no upper level support in the
way of jet interaction. As a result, a few strong storms may be
possible.

Lingering showers and scattered thunderstorms will occur into the
overnight hours as the front moves through the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

A few lingering showers may remain across south central Missouri
Monday morning in the wake of the cold frontal passage. A cool
Canadian surface high will begin filtering into the region through
the day with highs only expected to climb into the middle 80s.

The region will remain on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge
over the western CONUS for the remainder of the week. The
generally northwesterly upper level flow aloft will keep
temperatures on the cool side compared to last week with little
chance for any precipitation noted in the models heading into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

Confidence has increased that a line of thunderstorms will push
southeast across southern Missouri from mid-morning through early
this afternoon. We have therefore inserted a TEMPO group for MVFR
visibilities and gusty winds at all three TAF sites. Otherwise, a
cold front will make its way south through the area this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the north and northwest behind the
front. VFR conditions are also expected behind the front as we get
into tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
830 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021330-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
830 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
  ACROSS CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING
  AND THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
  WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

  OUTSIDE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH
  THROUGH THE REGION.

  AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
  THE 100 DEGREE MARK TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
  CENTRAL MISSOURI MONDAY MORNING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
  SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN