Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1214 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 109 RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST
READINGS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
SPRINGFIELD TO ALTON MISSOURI LINE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING AS IS UNTIL 8 PM FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT DEVELOPED WITH CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY CAPPED DUE TO A WARM
AIRMASS...AND VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ON THIS
BOUNDARY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE OUTFLOW PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THIS
BOUNDARY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE STORMS
WILL FORM INTO A LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ACCELERATE TO
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXITING THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS WITH THE BETTER POTENTIAL TO BE AFFECTED BY
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FARTHER TO THE WEST...GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS HOW FAR EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 THIS ACTIVITY CAN MAKE IT....THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT/COLD POOL THAT DEVELOPS FROM
THE STORMS ACROSS KANSAS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP ACROSS
THE AREA AND WITH STRONG THETA-E DIFFERENCE AND A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 TO 80 MPH LIKELY ALONG THIS LINE WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS THAT STRONG BEING WEST OF INTERSTATE 49. THERE IS
A HAIL RISK...BUT WITH THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR IN
NATURE THIS POTENTIAL IS MORE LIMITED WITH GENERALLY UP TO
QUARTERS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 7
AND 10 PM ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR AND BETWEEN
8 AND MIDNIGHT WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THERE ARE MORE QUESTIONS IF
THIS LINE OF STORMS CAN MAKE IT EAST OF HIGHWAY 65...AND WILL HAVE
TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THIS LINE SETS UP ACROSS KANSAS.

FRIDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...
THOUGH THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS REALLY LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO THE LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A COOLER AIRMASS TO SPREAD INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE MIDDLE 80S EACH AFTERNOON AS LOWS DROP INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EACH NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER OR WASH OUT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUN 28 2013

CONVECTION THAT WAS DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING OVER EASTERN
KANSAS IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WITHIN THE
AERODROME AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z. COULD SEE SOME STRONG
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE
AERODROMES.

ONCE THE CONVECTION PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...GAEDE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>