Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
216 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION WAS BEGINNING TO EXPAND AND INCREASE A
BIT IN INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM SALEM DOWN
TO BRANSON. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION SHIELF CONTINUING TO EXPAND WHILE THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO ARKANSAS.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS INTO MISSOURI DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AND EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE TRENDED THE POPS
DOWNWARD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TIME TONIGHT.

MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION.

LINDENBERG

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND WILL DROP
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA WITH THIS COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE
WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
EXPERIENCE IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL PERSIST...WHILE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
COULD CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO FALL AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO MONITORING RADAR TRENDS MAY BE
NEEDED.

SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST WILL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
337 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-182045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
337 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WIDESPREAD RAIN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
  THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LONG DURATION OF THE RAINFALL MAY
  RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW WATER
  CROSSINGS. AREAS BETWEEN U.S. 60 AND U.S. 54 WILL BE MOST PRONE
  TO THE MINOR FLOODING.

  A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF QUARTERS.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A DRIER AIRMASS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN
  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
327 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             3 N CRANE               36.95N 93.57W
03/17/2013  E1.50 INCH       STONE              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTS HAIL ON HWY 13 3 MILES NORTH OF
            CRANE.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
336 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             CLEVER                  37.03N 93.47W
03/17/2013  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING ROAD

&&

LDOOLEY

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