River Flood Warning 96, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

Went ahead and cancelled the flood watch for our southern counties
as the surface boundary and 850 front have shifted south into
Arkansas. also mid level moisture and precipitable water values
have decreased over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Night) ISSUED AT
236 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

Large scale upper level flow pattern shows very little change
through Sunday as a broad upper level vortex over eastern Canada
remains pretty much stationary. Meanwhile...the upper ridge over the
Southwestern United States extending from Texas northwestward toward
Montana remains essentially stationary through the period.

The above pattern will continue to produce the persistent Northwest
upper level flow we have have seen for quite some time now over
Missouri and well to our North and East. A couple of weak
progressive short wave trofs embedded in this flow will drive
Southeastward from the Northern High Plains from Saturday through
Monday.

At the surface is where we will see at least some respite. High
pressure centered over the upper Mississippi Valley will track
slowly southeastward into Sunday with ridging persisting into
Missouri. Latest Model guidance is in fair consistency with keeping
surface front and 850 mb level baroclinic zones mainly along the
Missouri and Arkansas border area or just south of it. This pattern
should keep most shower and convective activity focused over
southern and far southwestern Missouri through Sunday with activity
diminishing toward the north.

Sunday night into Monday is when we begin to see the first notable
pattern change as the only shortwave of any real strength pushes
southeastward from the northern High Plains. At the same time
surface high pressure tracks eastward and at least a weak to
moderate 850 southwesterly flow sets up...giving us the best focus
of dynamics and moisture advection over Southern Missouri for this
three day period. Surface based and Most Unstable Cape values are
also best on Monday afternoon...both hitting the 4000J/KG to
5000J/KG range over western Missouri and far Southeastern Kansas.
While forecast PWAT values approach the 1.70 inch range...the deep
Gulf moisture advection we saw last week does not set up..thus I do
not believe we will see a repeat of the flooding we saw over the
past few days. While a few stronger storms are possible...do not see
much of a threat for severe storm development as zero to six km bulk
shear values remain around 20 kts or so.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

The upper level pa tern shows modest change over the outlook period
as the upper trof over Canada continues to slide eastward and its
associated upper trof shifts southeastward toward the Appalachian
ridge. At the surface...some residual convection may persist over
far southwestern Missouri into Tuesday mainly due to the continuance
of the pattern described above for Monday.

Wednesday through Friday should bring much drier (finally) and very
comfortable conditions as a seasonably strong surface Canadian high
pressure system sinks well south of the area. Expect daytime highs
to be in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the lower 60s during
this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

Lower clouds are still a little slow to clear out at the Branson
Airport so will keep a 1000-foot ceiling for the next couple of
hours. Otherwise will go with vfr conditions through the afternoon
at all taf sites. will also carry tempo thunder at Branson since
they are closer to the 850 mb shear axis and deeper moisture.

Later tonight will bring ceilings down to ifr for Branson and mvfr
for Springfield and Joplin with slightly positive hydrolapses...weak
winds and lots of residual low level moisture.

terry

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Terry
SHORT TERM...Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...Terry

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
526 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W MORGAN              37.51N 92.69W
08/10/2013                   LACLEDE            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY J CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

AFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CONWAY                  37.50N 92.82W
08/10/2013                   LACLEDE            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TEN HOMES FLOODED IN CONWAY...ONE ASSISTED RESCUE.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
613 AM CDT SAT AUG 10 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W WEST PLAINS         36.72N 91.92W
08/10/2013                   HOWELL             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY K

&&

AFOSTER