River Flood Warning 68, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
607 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

A CLASSIC HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING SITUATION DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI AS A LOW
LEVEL JET OVERRODE A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS GIVEN
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AS WELL AS TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES. WE HAVE
RECEIVED NUMEROUS FLOODING REPORTS...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WHERE A MID LEVEL VORTEX HELPED FOCUS EXTREME
RAINFALL RATES. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME OCCASIONAL MESOVORTEX GENESIS
WITH LINE SEGMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
TO THIS POINT...WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN ANY WIND DAMAGE REPORTS...
HOWEVER THE PITTSBURG KANSAS OBSERVING STATION DID RECORD A WIND
GUST TO 54 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

HEADING INTO TODAY...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE WHEN TO END
PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH HAS BEEN
THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS BY AROUND SUNRISE. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER. THE FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL BE
LOWER GIVEN DRIER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND TO THE CONVECTION. WITH ONGOING WARNINGS ALREADY
IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...WE WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLING THE WATCH EARLY.

WE MAY THEN SEE SOME SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERRIDE THE SURFACE FRONT.
IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR...WE COULD SEE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT THIS IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL. A
LIMITED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THEN PERSIST INTO
THIS EVENING AS THAT FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. AT THIS
POINT...THE SETUP FOR FOG LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

QUIET WEATHER IS THEN ON TAP FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE NEXT BOUT OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN
ARRIVE FROM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT
SHOT AT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE PERIOD FROM THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED AS A
SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TO STALL ACROSS
THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...TEMPERATURES APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

SHOWERS/OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE DAY GOES ON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL...THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE IF/WHEN RA/TSRA AFFECTS A TERMINAL. LATER TONIGHT...RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH...BUT FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SEEMS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IFR
CONDITIONS...AND PERHAPS EVEN LIFR...ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SCHAUMANN
SHORT TERM...SCHAUMANN
LONG TERM...SCHAUMANN
AVIATION...BOXELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-311000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
455 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FOG RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A CLUSTER OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
  OZARKS THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL
  LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS MAY
  LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF SOME LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

  MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW
  WATER CROSSINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF TODAY ACROSS
  WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN BE
  POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
  AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. IF
  ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
  PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

  PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS IS THEN
  EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY
  NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
  ACROSS THE REGION.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ARE
  EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRIMARILY
  ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
537 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      W GALLOWAY              37.14N 93.24W
07/30/2013                   GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LONE PINE NEAR REPUBLIC ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN
            SPRINGFIELD.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
545 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE BATTLEFIELD        37.07N 93.31W
07/30/2013                   CHRISTIAN          MO   911 CALL CENTER

            WEST TRACKER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW ROGERSVILLE       37.13N 93.12W
07/30/2013                   GREENE             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER REPORTED OVER HIGHWAY 125 BETWEEN FARM ROADS 170
            AND 174.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
638 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW RED OAK           37.26N 94.04W
07/30/2013                   LAWRENCE           MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE AA CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
656 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N BATTLEFIELD         37.19N 93.37W
07/30/2013                   GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            WATER COMPLETELY COVERING FARM ROAD 146 OVER WILSONS
            CREEK JUST WEST OF RUTLEDGE WILSON FARM...RELAYED VIA
            TWITTER.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PITTSBURG               37.41N 94.70W
07/30/2013  M7.93 INCH       CRAWFORD           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL FROM COOP OBSERVER AT PITTSBURG STATE
            UNIVERSITY.

&&

BOXELL