Flash Flood Warning 84, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2013

...SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING SITUATION UNFOLDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND PULASKI COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

Very serious flooding situation unfolding across the area this
morning. A band of thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall has set
of up from roughly the Lake of the Ozark area southeastward
through portions of Laclede/Pulaski counties and into the northern
half of Texas county. Radar estimates vary a bit, but given
rainfall rate observations from the past several nights, as much
as 8" of rain has fallen in spots.

This band of rainfall will be the primary concern this morning. A
decaying line of storms entering from the west has produced a
large swath of moderate rain. Rainfall amounts are more modest
with a general half inch to one inch of rainfall over a longer
duration, with embedded pockets of up to two inches of rainfall.

The biggest concern for this morning is that band of torrential
rainfall from central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks and the
extreme flooding risk. Looking at the HRRR and other short range
models, this band of rainfall will not move much through day
break. With hourly rainfall rates between one and two inches, a
bad situation will only get worse.

Rain will gradually end from west to east during the mid to late
morning hours. Like yesterday some clearing is expected and a warm
and humid afternoon is in store. Instability will quickly increase
during the afternoon and additional isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across the entire area. There will
be a limited risk for severe with this activity, with hail to the
size of quarters and localized damaging wind gusts. This activity
will likely persist into the evening in a widely scattered
fashion. Then attention will turn to a complex of thunderstorms
develop to our north/northwest. This will approach the area from
the northwest overnight tonight. In addition, much like the past
few nights, will need to watch for low level jet interaction with
any lingering boundaries. This activity will be possible just
about anywhere across the outlook area. The airmass remains
extremely moist, and flash flooding will once again be a major
concern.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

The forecast for midweek into early next week remains complex and
concerning. Northwest flow aloft will keep our region in the
atmospheric battleground, and multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms remain possible. There is moderate confidence in
another round of heavy rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday. As
a result, the Flash Flood Watch will be extended into Thursday
morning.

The medium range models do offer a glimmer of hope for the weekend
and the pattern briefly deamplifies and the atmospheric
battleground shifts just to the west. Tough to get to confident in
this solution given the persistent upper level pattern that has
been in place. One can certainly hope, though.

The bottom line is that more rounds of rain will be possible.
Temperatures will be at or below average (depending on cloud
coverage and rain).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

Pilots can expect additional storms to move into the region
overnight bringing areas of MVFR conditions and the potential of
strong thunderstorm winds. IFR conditions will be possible in the
heavier rainfall. Improving flight conditions will return by
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
302 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-070815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
302 AM CDT TUE AUG 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA OVERNIGHT. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
  THESE STORMS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
  PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI.

  THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
  ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.

  INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

  FLOODING IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
  REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
  ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING.

  UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
  INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS THROUGH THE
  AREA. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON A NEAR DAILY
  BASIS...CAUSING ADDITIONAL FLOODING OVER LOCATIONS WITH
  SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON A
  DAILY BASIS THIS WEEK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
  WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  DUE TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTER
  ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     TSTM WND GST     NEVADA                  37.84N 94.35W
08/06/2013  M52 MPH          VERNON             MO   AWOS

            THE NEVADA AWOS KNVD REPORTED A 52 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAYNESVILLE             37.83N 92.20W
08/06/2013                   PULASKI            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MITCHEL CREEK FLOODING

&&

AFOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT LEONARD WOOD       37.71N 92.16W
08/06/2013                   PULASKI            MO   OTHER FEDERAL

            SEVERAL ROADWAYS ON BASE AT FORT LEONARD WOOD UNDER WATER
            AND IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLASH FLOODING...W...38...AND 1
            ROADWAYS FLOODED.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
355 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LICKING                 37.50N 91.86W
08/06/2013                   TEXAS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER ENTERING HOUSES IN LICKING DUE TO FLASH
            FLOODING ON 32ND STREET.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
356 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAYNESVILLE             37.83N 92.20W
08/06/2013                   PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC IS REPORTING SEVERE FLOODING NEAR DOWNTOWN
            WAYNESVILLE WITH WATER ENTERING HOMES AT THIS TIME.
            REPORTS FROM SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
424 AM CDT TUE AUG 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WAYNESVILLE             37.83N 92.20W
08/06/2013                   PULASKI            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            APPROXIMATELY 20 HOMES ARE FLOODED AND BEING EVAUCATED
            NEAR DOWNTOWN WAYNESVILLE ALONG ROUBIDOUX CREEK AND OLD
            HISTORIC ROUTE 66.

&&

MGRIFFIN