Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
612 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2013

...SHORT TERM UPDATE AND UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

Convection that fired last night across Kansas produced very
impressive rainfall amounts just to the west of the forecast area,
but was never able to kick east with time. As the low level jet
continues to veer and weaken over the next couple of hours, this
convection should generally continue to weaken. Some
thunderstorms may make it into far southeastern Kansas or
southwestern Missouri, but should be fairly light in nature.

A more organized area of storms was able to develop over the
central and eastern portions of the CWA early this morning, but
thankfully, has been fairly progressive in terms of movement. These
have likely been able to tap into the slightly stronger belt of
westerlies across this area, and may also be feeling the influence
of a minor shortwave rotating southeast from Iowa. They should
continue to push south and east this morning, and while some
moderate to at times heavy rain can be expected, the progressive
nature to their movement suggests that high end flash flooding
isn't particularly likely this morning. Nonetheless, a solid inch
to perhaps two inches of new rainfall will be possible where the
heaviest cells move overhead...which will still be enough to
result in some minor new flooding and/or an exacerbation of
existing flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

*610 AM...See update section above for latest convective
 trends...remainder of previous discussion continues below...

Temperatures today will be tricky, as the upper ridge and associated
warm mid level temps try to poke northeast into the forecast area
during the daytime hours.  The big question is really just how much
we will clear out, and whether any clearing will end up being too
late in the afternoon to make much of a difference. The best shot of
clearing will certainly be over the extreme southwestern corner of
the CWA, where mid 90s seems attainable. With very high dewpoints in
place, heat indices should have little trouble approaching the 100
degree mark.

As we head into this evening and the overnight hours tonight, the
ring of fire should light up yet again.  At this juncture, it does
look like the most favored axis for thunderstorm activity will be a
little further north and east than in previous nights.  As such, the
northern 2/3 to half of the CWA seem most likely to see
thunderstorms.  Heavy rain will again be possible, and with
saturated soils, flash flooding as well.  The Flash Flood Watch will
be allowed to continue into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

Once Tuesday night's activity exists to the east Wednesday morning,
it looks like the region should see a 12-18 hour break from the
rain, before a frontal boundary attempts to move into the area
Wednesday night.

Unfortunately, guidance seems to be converging on a solution that
only brings the front down to about I-44 before stalling it out
Thursday, with the front then sticking around into the weekend.
This solution would feature multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front, something that we really
just don't need.  This would also keep appreciable cloud cover
across the area, keeping temperatures at or below normal.
Dewpoints/humidity would remain quite high, however. By Day 6/7, the
GFS does attempt to nudge the front a little further south as a
stronger shortwave sweeps across the Corn Belt, while the ECMWF
keeps the front stalled across the forecast area.  Regardless,
northwest flow looks to continue into at least next week, suggesting
the unsettled pattern should continue for a while.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

The heaviest convection should generally miss the terminals early
this morning, with just brief reductions in visibility as small
thunderstorm cells move overhead. IFR cigs will continue into mid
morning, before lifting to MVFR to VFR cu and stratocu.

Additional thunderstorm development seems fairly likely late
tonight into the early morning hours on Tuesday. IFR to LIFR cigs
and vis will be likely where thunderstorms, but given considerable
uncertainty regarding timing and location of convection, will hold
off on including these restrictions for now, and will handle
things with a broad brushed VCTS.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
422 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060930-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
422 AM CDT MON AUG 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
  TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING FOR A SHORT TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON
  INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. WITH ALREADY
  SATURATED GROUND...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREAS
  OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
  INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
  FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.

  THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
  WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
  DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI...AS WELL AS
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
  EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS TUESDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
  POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

  UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
  INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS THROUGH THE
  AREA. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON A NEAR DAILY BASIS.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON A
  DAILY BASIS THIS WEEK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
  WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL