High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
920 AM PDT SUN SEP 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
TODAY. SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FRONT IS JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WA TODAY WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND RATHER BLUSTERY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE UP FOR THE MARINE AREAS. WINDS ON
LAND ARE FLIRTING WITH THE SPEED IN A FEW LOCATIONS...A WIND
ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND IS 30 MPH/GUSTS 45 MPH AND THAT IS
WHAT NAS WHIDBEY IS REPORTING AT 9AM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR RATHER BREEZY WEATHER TONIGHT. IT WILL BE SHOWERY
AND COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING PERIODS.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING WESTERN
WASHINGTON TO DRY OUT AS NORTHERLY FLOW TAKES OVER. SHORT WAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR OUR
BEST CHANCE AT CLEAR SKIES THIS WEEK. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME OF THE
COLDER SPOTS LIKE SHELTON AND OLYMPIA DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS...A PRETTY GOOD SIGN THAT AUTUMN HAS
ARRIVED AS SCHEDULED. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. ITS A BIT FASTER IN THE EURO THAN THE GFS...BUT
THE OVERALL TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKE WHAT YOU
WOULD EXPECT WITH OCTOBER NEARLY HERE. 27

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN WA THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY
FLOW TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
WILL REACH THE WA COAST SHORTLY BEFORE MIDDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AT ALL LEVELS. GENERALLY
STABLE...BECOMING WEAKLY UNSTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BUT DOES NOT
WARRANT INCLUDING IN TAFS. SHOWERS LATER TODAY...DECREASING TONIGHT.

CIGS WILL CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH MIDDAY. CIGS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 1-3K FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WRN WA.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF VSBYS AND CIGS IN THE 2-4SM RANGE AND
BELOW 1K FT...RESPECTIVELY. THE MTNS WILL BE OBSCD.

KSEA...CIGS STILL EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 2-3K FT RANGE LATE THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO
BE OCCASIONAL CIGS 1-2K FT NEAR THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL BY AROUND 21Z. GUSTY SLY WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL SWITCH TO SWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND RISE TO 14-18 KT
W/ GUSTS TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WA OUTER COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE COAST NEAR MIDDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE FRONT. GALES IN PUGET SOUND MAY OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
INTO THIS EVENING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT TONIGHT AND MON.

A LARGE SWELL TRAIN WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS ON MON...
RESULTING IN WESTERLY SWELLS OF 15 TO 18 FT OR HAZARDOUS SEAS...
SPECIALLY FOR SMALLER VESSELS. THE LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO CREATE
HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ON THE COASTLINE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME
BEACH EROSION.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT
     OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR FROM
     5 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

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