Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Blacksburg, VA

853 
WWUS51 KRNK 131613
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1213 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

VAC005-017-580-WVC025-131630-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0064.000000T0000Z-130613T1630Z/
BATH VA-ALLEGHANY VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-GREENBRIER WV-
1213 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN BATH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CENTRAL ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
CITY OF COVINGTON IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
   
AT 1210 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
NATURAL WELL...AND WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COVINGTON CITY...
CLIFTON FORGE CITY...
HOT SPRINGS...
NEOLA...
AND NATURAL WELL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT GET CAUGHT OUTSIDE. SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS 
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS NOW! IF YOU CAN HEAR 
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE
OR LARGER HAIL...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING
DOWNED TREES OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND
PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 7962 3777 7967 3777 7971 3780 7981
      3779 7984 3777 7985 3777 8006 3778 8025
      3800 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 277DEG 35KT 3787 8001 

$$

CF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1046 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040 AM EDT THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON LAST NIGHT'S STORMS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BETWEEN 11A-01P TODAY. THESE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT SEVERE BUT DO CONTAIN WIND GUST UP TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL
ADVANCE EAST OVER THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
COULD BECOME STRONGER MOVING INTO HIGHER INSTABILITIES. THE MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME WITH THE COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW ENTERING WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AT 1030
AM. UNLESS THIS FRONT PICKS UP SPEED...IT WILL ARRIVE IN SE WV/SW VA
AROUND 300 PM. ONCE THIS FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA...IT SHOULD
PICK UP SPEED AND JUMP TO THE LEE TROUGH IN THE EAST. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN TO
THIS EVENING. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A WATCH
WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO
BE INCLUDED IN THE WATCH DEPENDING ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 440 AM EDT THURSDAY...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED TWO WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE
GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A SQUALL LINE WAS
CROSSING INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS WAS WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM
INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS OHIO
INTO SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

MODELS REMAINED SIMILAR IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COMING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT THIS
TIME THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXTENDED FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO
KENTUCKY. DOWNDRAFT CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AHEAD OF
THE STORMS HAD BEEN AROUND THE 1200 J/KG RANGE FOR SINCE MIDNIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL JET HAD BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST
WITH SPEEDS NOW INTO THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE...AND 850-300 MB WINDS
WERE FROM THE WEST AROUND 50 KNOTS.

WITH THE DEEP WEST WIND...STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. BUT ENOUGH HEATING BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
PIEDMONT...MAINLY EAST OF A LYNCHBURG TO REIDSVILLE LINE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-INTENSIFY OR RE-DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN THE FAR
WEST AND FAR EAST PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 8AM AND 8PM. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS
SHOWED PRESSURE RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB PER 6 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH 30 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB WINDS. STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN A COOLER AIR MASS WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO +10 BY 12Z FRIDAY AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

LEANED TOWARD BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND A BLEND OR MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...

ANOMALOUS H5 TROUGH DRIVES H85 TEMPS BELOW 10C INTO SE WEST VA FOR
FRIDAY. JUST ENOUGH LLVL MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SOME
MOUNTAIN STRATO CU ACROSS SE WEST VA...WHICH WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT
LATE DAY. SOME SPOTS ACROSS SE WEST VA MAY NOT REACH 70F. A BREEZY
DAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH MUCH LESS CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING THE DEEP BUT SKINNY TROUGH IS GONE
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WAA ENSUES. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
ZONAL THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND EXPANDS FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. DISTURBANCES EJECTED FROM THE
CURRENT GYRE OVER THE PAC NW WILL TAKE A WEST TO EAST
ROUTE...ARRIVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DRAWING JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FOR THE NEXT RAIN OPPORTUNITY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ON SUNDAY
TOO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA.
SUNDAY...LOOKING AT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE SETTING OUR AREA
UP IN THE RETURN FLOW AND INCREASED HUMIDITY. SUNDAY WILL BE A DAY
OF TYPICAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS.

AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FROM GREAT
LAKES-CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SIMILAR OVERALL BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. STILL LOOKS LIKE AN
ACTIVE PATTERN WHERE 2-3 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS.
FRONT APPEARS TO FINALLY INCH SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 735 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT 7AM. MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THE STORMS TO
REACH LWB AROUND 13Z/9AM. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS HOLDS OFF AT
KBLF/KROA/KBCB UNTIL AFTER 14Z/10AM.

WEST WINDS MAY WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ROA AND BCB BUT
THEN LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REORGANIZE ALONG OR EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AT KDAN AND KLYH AFTER 19Z/3PM.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. ASIDE FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY BOTH AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN VFR
WEATHER. MAY SEE FOG AT THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING...
KLWB/KBCB...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
541 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-141000-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
541 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ042>045-
141000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
541 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
836 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

VAZ019-020-WVZ045-131330-
BATH VA-ALLEGHANY VA-GREENBRIER WV-
836 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  BATH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHERN ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 930 AM EDT

* AT 833 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
  GREENBANK TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF SUMMERSVILLE...MOVING TO THE
  SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
  STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WARM SPRINGS...
  HOT SPRINGS...
  WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
  MILLBORO...
  AND NEOLA.

LAT...LON 3822 7970 3817 7951 3815 7953 3817 7947
      3815 7945 3786 7966 3775 8024 3810 8087
      3808 8071 3827 8044 3823 8036 3811 8036
      3805 8027 3804 8021 3806 7997 3811 7993
      3813 7995 3818 7992 3827 7980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1233Z 295DEG 38KT 3831 7981 3819 8088

CF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

WVZ045-131530-
GREENBRIER WV-
1043 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  CENTRAL GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT

* AT 1039 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BABCOCK STATE PARK...MOVING TO
  THE EAST AT 45 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUPERT...
  RENICK...
  RAINELLE...
  BINGHAM...
  AND MEADOW BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3787 8032 3789 8077 3795 8081 3798 8077
      3802 8080 3803 8083 3806 8080 3805 8086
      3808 8089 3810 8087 3808 8071 3813 8063
      3815 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1439Z 268DEG 37KT 3801 8096

CF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1138 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

WVZ045-131615-
GREENBRIER WV-
1138 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT

* AT 1135 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FRANKFORD
  TO BINGHAM...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
  STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LEWISBURG...
  WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS...
  RUPERT...
  NEOLA...
  AND RENICK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3810 8033 3805 8027 3804 8016 3806 8011
      3805 7999 3791 8011 3787 8017 3780 8023
      3777 8022 3775 8026 3787 8076 3790 8077
      3810 8069 3813 8063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1535Z 272DEG 61KT 3790 8038 3809 8084

CF