Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
356 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...EXITING TO
THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
THE AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED AHEAD AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
THUS...CANCELED FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE THREAT
FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED.

THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES.

INCREASED POPS IN THE EAST WITH A SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
IN GENERAL...EXPECTED LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THEN...TAPER OFF RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.
ADDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. PLAYED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT CLOSE TO
ADJMAVBC WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND
60 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SURFACE WINDS VEER THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO OUR AREA. PLAYED HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY CLOSE TO COOLER MOS
WITH READINGS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE
MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 1022MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ONTARIO CANADA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERAL WIND FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST...TENDING MORE EASTERLY BY TUESDAY. THE AIRMASS DOES
NOT LOOK OVERLY COOL...YEILDING DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 70S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S/50S. TEMPERATURE RANGE MAY BE A BIT
MORE NARROW IF ANY LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS GETS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PER AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. THIS SUGGESTS LITTLE OR NO ADVECTIONS OF ANY SORT
DURING THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES STRENGTHEN A LITTLE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WARMING THICKNESSES. FOR THE SENSIBLE
FORECAST...RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS MID WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS
THE MTNS PER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHER THAN THAT THE WEEK AS A WHOLE LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SATURDAY...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH VARIABILITY
OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SOME VFR POSSIBLE
POST FRONT ACROSS THE WEST BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE SOME OVERNIGHT
WITH FOG FORMING AGAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS.

UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS COULD WORK INTO BLF/LWB AS WELL DROPPING THE
CIG TO MVFR OR WORSE.

FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. PATCHY IFR
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT SATURDAY...

GETTING A GOOD DOWNPOUR OF RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES. AS SUCH...FLOOD
WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST WV HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK
NEAR TERM...KK/WP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JH/PM
AVIATION...KK/WP
HYDROLOGY...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

WVZ043-045-221915-
SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
309 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOCALIZED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042-044-221915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-MONROE-
309 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. LOCALIZED POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND IN URBAN AREAS. A FEW WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

NCZ020-VAZ016-017-032-033-043-212145-
YADKIN NC-HENRY VA-FRANKLIN VA-PATRICK VA-FLOYD VA-CARROLL VA-
450 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN YADKIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN STRETCHING FROM NEAR CALLAWAY TO
  NEAR MOUNT AIRY...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF SHOWERS.
  VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING AT TIMES...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
  ON ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SYDNORSVILLE...
  ARARAT...
  BASSETT...
  FERRUM...
  AND COPPER HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAIN CAN LIMIT VISIBILITIES AND MAKE FOR SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS. YOU MAY ENCOUNTER ROADWAY HAZARDS WITHOUT HAVING
ADEQUATE TIME OR CLEARANCE TO SAFELY AVOID THEM. IF YOU MUST
DRIVE...DO SO AT LOW SPEED AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS. MAINTAIN
EXTRA SEPARATION BETWEEN YOURSELF AND SURROUNDING VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8065 3629 8063 3627 8060 3628 8055
      3655 8051 3656 8067 3711 8018 3712 8013
      3709 8012 3693 7977 3654 8010 3652 8045
      3645 8052 3626 8053 3625 8046 3622 8043
      3620 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 283DEG 17KT 3706 8007 3638 8074

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
458 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

NCZ003-004-019-020-212200-
STOKES NC-SURRY NC-YADKIN NC-WILKES NC-
458 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  STOKES COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  SURRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  YADKIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 457 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  INTENSE SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CANA TO NEAR
  TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. VERY
  HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS
  AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOUNT AIRY...
  KING...
  ELKIN...
  YADKINVILLE...
  AND DOBSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAIN CAN LIMIT VISIBILITIES AND MAKE FOR SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS. YOU MAY ENCOUNTER ROADWAY HAZARDS WITHOUT HAVING
ADEQUATE TIME OR CLEARANCE TO SAFELY AVOID THEM. IF YOU MUST
DRIVE...DO SO AT LOW SPEED AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS. MAINTAIN
EXTRA SEPARATION BETWEEN YOURSELF AND SURROUNDING VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 8112 3656 8067 3654 8010 3626 8031
      3626 8045 3616 8044 3612 8046 3611 8051
      3605 8050 3606 8099 3603 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 272DEG 17KT 3661 8066 3601 8117

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
547 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

VAZ032>034-043>046-212245-
BEDFORD VA-HENRY VA-APPOMATTOX VA-FRANKLIN VA-PATRICK VA-
PITTSYLVANIA VA-CAMPBELL VA-
547 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  INTENSE SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR COLEMAN FALLS TO
  NEAR PENNS STORE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. VERY
  HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...WITH A HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN POSSIBLE
  WITHIN A HALF HOUR...WHICH MAY CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND
  QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNCHBURG CITY...
  MARTINSVILLE CITY...
  EVINGTON...
  FOREST...
  AND BEDFORD CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAIN CAN LIMIT VISIBILITIES AND MAKE FOR SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS. YOU MAY ENCOUNTER ROADWAY HAZARDS WITHOUT HAVING
ADEQUATE TIME OR CLEARANCE TO SAFELY AVOID THEM. IF YOU MUST
DRIVE...DO SO AT LOW SPEED AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS. MAINTAIN
EXTRA SEPARATION BETWEEN YOURSELF AND SURROUNDING VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7961 3654 8015 3755 7948 3756 7944
      3750 7929 3751 7923 3740 7912 3739 7908
      3742 7907 3750 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 275DEG 23KT 3751 7934 3655 8006

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
603 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

NCZ004-005-212300-
STOKES NC-ROCKINGHAM NC-
603 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  STOKES COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 602 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  INTENSE SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR COLLINSTOWN TO
  NEAR YADKINVILLE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. VERY
  HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS
  AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EDEN...
  KING...
  MADISON...
  WALNUT COVE...
  AND STONEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAIN CAN LIMIT VISIBILITIES AND MAKE FOR SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS. YOU MAY ENCOUNTER ROADWAY HAZARDS WITHOUT HAVING
ADEQUATE TIME OR CLEARANCE TO SAFELY AVOID THEM. IF YOU MUST
DRIVE...DO SO AT LOW SPEED AND USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS. MAINTAIN
EXTRA SEPARATION BETWEEN YOURSELF AND SURROUNDING VEHICLES.

THIS LINE OF SHOWERS IS INTENSIFYING. IF IT BECOMES MUCH
STRONGER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8043 3654 8031 3654 7961 3625 8014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 275DEG 18KT 3659 8041 3610 8064

16

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>