Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
831 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE SOUTH INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR THE END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

UPDATING POPS BASED ON 800 PM RADAR IMAGE. STILL A FEW STRONG
STORMS TO DEAL WITH THIS EVENING ACROSS NW NC HIGH COUNTY AND SE
WV...GREENBRIER TO SUMMERS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY DROPPING OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...STILL SOME STRONG CAPE IN AREAS
THAT DID NOT SEE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULAR THE PIEDMONT.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS DROPPED SOME HAIL...BUT IT HAS
BEEN MOSTLY HEAVY RAINERS. RADAR ESTIMATING 4 INCH RAINFALL RATES
IN MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS. MOUNT AIRY HAD 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN
IN 90 MINUTES. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING THEN FOG
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

AS OF 240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE HIGHER INSTABILITY RESIDES WITH MORE
MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG THE SRN BLUE RIDGE PER LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW INTO AN AXIS OF VERY HIGH SURFACE THETA-E. HOWEVER FORCING
ALOFT REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH PULSE NATURE DEEPER STORMS DRIVEN
BY STEEP LAPSES AND AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER SHRA TO THE
NORTH. LATEST NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ONGOING
SCENARIO ATTM WITH MORE CONVECTION EARLY ON BEFORE ACTUALLY
DECREASING THIS EVENING AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER VORT SHIFTS OFF
TO THE SW. THUS RUNNING WITH THE HIGHER SCATTERED POPS OVER THE
WEST/SW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN QUICKLY CUTTING BY MIDNIGHT
AS ACTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED BY THEN IF NOT SOONER. OTRW EXPECTING
MORE CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FOG FILLING IN ACROSS THE
VALLEYS AND WHERE HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY.
LOWS AGAIN ON THE WARM/MUGGY SIDE BUT MAINLY 65-70 WEST AND LOW
70S EAST.

UPPER SUPPORT EVEN MORE LACKING ON THU WITH PART OF THE 5H RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND THE RESIDUAL TROF AXIS FARTHER TO THE SW. FLOW AT ALL
LEVELS VERY WEAK WHILE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TIED TO OLD
OUTFLOW AND PERHAPS OROGRAPHIC DIFF HEATING. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW STARTS TO TURN A LITTLE MORE SE ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INCREASE COVERAGE THERE A BIT
MORE. IN ADDITION...ANY SUBTLE FEATURE THAT MODELS FAIL TO PICK UP
COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED COVERAGE SO BASICALLY RUNNING
WITH A SHOTGUN TYPE PATTERN FOR SCTD POPS THU WITH HIGHER CHANCES
WESTERN THIRD AND LEAST EAST WHERE A LITTLE DRIER ALOFT. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WED GIVEN ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
THICKNESS SO LOW/MID 90S LIKELY AGAIN EAST WITH 80S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

500 MB HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AS UPPER TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. WILL HAVE ANY ONGOING STORMS FROM
THURSDAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

NO ORGANIZED TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. WILL
HAVE CHANCE PROBABILITIES IN AFTER NOON. BY SATURDAY...FORECAST AREA
GETS INTO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND THIS LIFT WILL HELP
BROADEN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY.

FORECAST AREA IS STILL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1140 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BY THIS TIME UPPER RIDGE IS GONE AND TROFFING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. LONG WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE EAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE
IN THE WEST AND MOVES THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
EAST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AND
NOT AS FAR SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. TAKING A BLEND OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS AS RECOMMENDED BY WPC...THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE TO
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING IN THE FORECAST FOR A
NUMBER OF DAYS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

WHILE 850 MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT CHANGE MUCH...THE CLOUDS AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

CONVECTION WILL DISRUPT AIR TRAVEL TO LWB/BLF THIS EVENING. A
LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS
THROUGH 1000 PM. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST NC HIGHLAND THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE TRACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL
SOME INSTABILITY TOWARDS DANVILLE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN OVER NIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE.

CYCLE OF FOG FORMATION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AT
THE USUAL LOCATIONS AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SUPPORT A BIT LESS FOR TSRA ON THURSDAY ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM POP UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS BEST LOCATIONS TO SEE CONVECTION WILL BE
MAINLY KBLF/KLWB BUT BEYOND THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD LATER
THU SO LEAVING OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...PROGRESSIVELY MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND A TROUGH STARTS TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A BOUNDARY WILL BE SINKING SOUTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS CAN
BE EXPECTED IN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...AND AT
TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
NEAR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUED SCATTERING OF
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JH/KK/RCS/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
850 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

NCZ001>005-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-WVZ042>045-
190100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
850 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH FLOODING
FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ006-VAZ044>047-058-059-190100-
CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-
CHARLOTTE-
850 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER AT
THIS TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
915 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOONE                   36.21N 81.67W
07/17/2013                   WATAUGA            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON WHITE LAUREL ROAD AND ELK CREEK ROAD

&&

MSPORER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
918 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

VAZ011-WVZ042-044-180145-
GILES VA-MONROE WV-MERCER WV-
918 PM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHERN GILES COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 915 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PETERSTOWN...MOVING TO THE WEST AT 20
  MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS
  FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL
  ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
  LIGHTNING WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NARROWS...
  PETERSTOWN...
  ATHENS...
  RICH CREEK...
  AND WILLOWTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 8091 3743 8086 3747 8083 3748 8076
      3737 8070 3726 8100 3727 8101 3730 8098
      3729 8106 3744 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 78DEG 18KT 3740 8081

MBS