Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
433 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE MIDWEST WITH A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE GULF COAST. A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH COVERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER
TO THE COAST BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE AREA ARE FOLLOWING THE TRACKS OF
THE OUTER RING OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CLOSE TO BERMUDA. UNLIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONVECTION IS MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF RAIN THAT WAS OVER THE AREA EARLIER THIS
WEEK HAS MOVED WEST OVER THE TENN-OHIO VALLEYS. THE RAIN THAT FELL
IN THE PAST 48 HOURS HAS THE GROUND SATURATED WITH
CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS LEVELS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES RUNNING HIGH. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BRING LEVELS ABOVE BANKFULL AND CAUSE PROBLEMS IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET.
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL WANE FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BLUEFIELD WV TO MT AIREY NC. MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS COMING ACROSS
WESTERN NC WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL BANDS SETTING UP
ON FRIDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MT AIREY.
WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS...WE HAVE EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SW RNK CWA THROUGH 8P FRIDAY.

THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREAS WEATHER ON
FRIDAY. WITH A TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
BRING BANDS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BACK INTO THE AREA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING...THEN WILL PEPPER
THE REGION MORESO IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VERY HUMID AND
TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE SINKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST USA COAST. THIS JOG TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO MOVE TO NORTH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...THIS LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND BRING A MORE
TRADITIONAL THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. SHORT
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY WILL BE A LEE TROUGH IN THE
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ZONAL FLOW AND A HUMID
AIR MASS WILL BRING SHOWERS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE AREA
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFIDED TO THE PEAKING HEATING HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS NOW OUT
TO OUR WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR UNDER
HEAVY SHOWERS. ADDED FOG INTO MOST AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS SATURATED SOILS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE SOME
AREAS OF FOG.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN
UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THEREFORE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST/MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE LOCALLY HEAVY FOR ALL AIRPORTS...AND
CAPABLE OF QUICKLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM AS
DOWNPOURS PASS OVERHEAD.

STRATUS WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL REFORM AGAIN
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAN MVFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP BUT NOT AS SURE ABOUT CEILINGS AS LOW AS
IFR.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER OUR AREA. AS
SUCH...THE BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM THE BLUE
RIDGE WESTWARD...WHILE RAINFALL OVER THE EAST WILL BE MORE SPOTTY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE STRONGER WIND FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 505 AM EDT THURSDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR RNK FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO MY AIREY
NC UNTIL 8PM FRIDAY EVENING.

FLOODING IS ONGOING ON TRIBUTARIES FLOWING INTO THE ROANOKE
NEW...AND WATAUGA RIVERS. MANY OF THE TRIBUTARIES HAVE RECEDED
BUT COULD SEE SECONDARY RISES FROM HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 430 PM EDT THURSDAY...

KFCX RADAR HAS WILL REMAIN DOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO A BAD
POWER SUPPLY. PART HAS BEEN ORDERED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ011-013-
     014-017>020-022>024-032-033-043.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009-010-
     012-015-016.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ004-020.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-018-
     019.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...KK/RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...CF
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
323 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-051930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-
323 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059-051930-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-BEDFORD-AMHERST-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
323 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004-020-VAZ011-013-014-017>020-022>024-032-033-043-WVZ042>045-
051930-
STOKES-YADKIN-GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-HENRY-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
323 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 FLASH FLOOD WATCH..INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
456 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

VAZ033-042130-
FRANKLIN VA-
456 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKY MOUNT...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 30
  MPH.

* PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON
  ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROCKY MOUNT...
  BOONES MILL...
  BURNT CHIMNEY...
  AND WIRTZ.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY...SO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS...FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3717 8003 3717 8001 3714 7999 3714 7996
      3718 7989 3721 7988 3722 7983 3722 7983
      3722 7980 3723 7978 3721 7978 3720 7977
      3699 7972 3695 7994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 168DEG 26KT 3703 7985

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
517 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     FLOOD            4 NW WOOLWINE           36.82N 80.33W
07/04/2013                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MUDSLIDE REPORTED ON ROUTE 8 NORTH ABOUT TWO MILES SOUTH
            OF THE PATRICK AND FLOYD COUNTY LINES

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
545 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

NCZ001-018-019-042215-
WATAUGA NC-WILKES NC-ASHE NC-
545 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  WATAUGA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  WESTERN WILKES COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  CENTRAL ASHE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 542 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN APPROACHING WILKES...WATAUGA AND
  ASHE COUNTIES FROM THE SOUTH...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 35 MPH. THIS
  HEAVY RAIN WILL ENTER SOUTHERN WATAUGA AND WILKES COUNTIES SHORTLY
  AFTER 6 PM...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS
  THE AREA.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON
  ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
  LANDSLIDES MAY ALSO OCCUR IN STEEP TERRAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BOONE...
  DEEP GAP...
  TODD...
  JEFFERSON...
  AND BLOWING ROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3636 8179 3634 8176 3634 8171 3641 8174
      3647 8169 3647 8141 3646 8141 3608 8143
      3612 8154 3612 8168 3611 8181 3619 8185
      3619 8188 3622 8191 3627 8189 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 179DEG 38KT 3606 8199 3607 8143

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
548 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W BOONE               36.21N 81.74W
07/04/2013                   WATAUGA            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER RUNNING OVER BAIRDS CREEK ROAD NEAR THE WILLOW
            VALLEY RESORT...FLOODING CAUSED BY UPPER LAUREL FORK

&&

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
550 PM EDT THU JUL 04 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE SUGAR GROVE        36.24N 81.76W
07/04/2013                   WATAUGA            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER RUNNING OVER LINVILLE CREEK ROAD...AND A SMALL
            LANDSLIDE ALSO OCCURED ALONG THIS SAME ROAD...FLOODING
            CAUSED BY LINVILLE CREEK AND BRUSHY FORK

&&

PW