Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
WITH TIME INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A
COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE.

WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO BREAK
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MODELS INDICATE AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS...BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW...DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AWAY FROM FORECAST AREA WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH MODEST DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
KEPT MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES COULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE DRY AND COOL
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH BUILDING
HIGH AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER
FRONT PASSAGE...MADE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. FOR TEMPS...WENT MAINLY
WITH BCMOS GUIDANCE VALUES WITH A BLEND INTO TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH RESULTS IN TRIVIAL CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER HANDLING DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW WORKING OUT OF THE MIDWEST.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS
AND TEMPS. TROUGH BEGINS SHIFTS EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...

VFR...ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS...CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06Z AND
12Z. EXPECT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE N/NW AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO
IFR WITH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION...SOME MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN BR/F ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BETWEEN 03Z AND 13Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH CIGS
LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR AFTER 15Z...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF PRECIP AND EXPECTED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/KMC
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
904 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013-014-017-019-
241315-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-WIRT-RITCHIE-
904 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ015-016-018-020-024>040-046-047-241315-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-KANAWHA-ROANE-CALHOUN-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
904 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

OHZ066-232045-
PERRY OH-
437 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY...

AT 433 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
ZANESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRINGE
EFFECTS OF THIS STORM PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3992 8227 3992 8218 3991 8217 3990 8216
      3983 8216 3982 8207 3977 8207 3977 8208
      3988 8231 3992 8229

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
508 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

OHZ067-232145-
MORGAN OH-
508 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY...

AT 503 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
ZANESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR EAGLEPORT AROUND 530 PM AND MCCONNELSVILLE
AROUND 550 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3977 8200 3977 8189 3977 8188 3976 8169
      3975 8168 3961 8182 3977 8206 3978 8206
      3978 8201

12

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