Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES BACK FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COMMENCES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST KEEPING
LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...RANGING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.

TWEAKED HOURLY POPS PER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST AND BREAKS IN
THE SKIES TO THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW...

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED THE POPS FOR THE BATCH OF SHOWERS PUSHING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES AND JUST
GAVE THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SOME TLC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS NOW KEEPING THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING ELEMENTS FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST THAT AN OVERALL LOWERING OF THE POPS IS WARRANTED THROUGH
THE CWA TODAY...TO A POINT. THERMODYNAMICS STILL THE MAIN DRIVER IN
THIS SET UP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING TO THE WEST...AND
MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES STILL PEGGED ON THE HIGH
END PUSHING 2 INCHES. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE PATTERN...DID
NOT END UP MAKING A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
FINALLY LIFT OUT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION INTO THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SEE POPS RAMP UP
DURING THIS TIME.

KEEP WITH THE TREND OF WESTERN ZONES IN THE LOWLANDS A FEW DEGREES
OFF THE PACE OF THE EASTERN LOWLANDS GIVEN THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER.
WILL SEE A BIT MORE SUN TODAY...AND NOTCHED THE TEMPERATURES UP A
DEGREE OR TWO SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST A TAD DIFFICULT. FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER
NGM SOLUTION AS MOST MODELS WERE TRENDING SLOWER AS WELL. UPPER
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PUSHING MOST OF
THE MOISTURE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. QUESTION IS STILL HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND AS IT LIFTS EASTWARD. KEEPING THIS
IN MIND...MONDAY WON'T BE AS DRY AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS. PRETTY
MUCH TRIED TO KEEP POPS TIMED CLOSE TO THE NGM SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND A DEGREE OR TOO COOLER AS WELL WITH MORE CLOUDS AND
PRECIP AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE ZONAL FLOW.  MUCH OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.  TEMPS ARE
BLEND OF CURRENT GUIDANCE AND EXISTING GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. DIFFICULT TO
PIN POINT EXACT LOCATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. MANAGE
TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS AND VCTS IN THE EXTENDED TAF.

SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY...09Z...FROM WEST TO EAST. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG OUT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION MAY
NECESSITATE TEMPOS/AMENDMENTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR MIST/FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ/LS
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
100 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-071700-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
100 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-062100-
BOYD KY-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-
401 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS WILL AFFECT
BOYD...LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN CARTER...SOUTHEASTERN GREENUP AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

AT 358 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THESE. A QUICK ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS
AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING
SPOTS.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3808 8295 3811 8290 3816 8292 3866 8274
      3857 8246 3840 8253 3842 8260 3828 8258
      3824 8261 3822 8260 3817 8263 3817 8264
      3792 8273 3799 8293 3797 8299

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