Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
701 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW...CENTERED NEAR EVANSVILLE IN...WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE
CURRENTLY ALONG EAST COAST TO CREEP WEST WITH TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...THINGS BECOMING CLEARER AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND HI
RES MODELS CATCH ON TO IT. APPEARS SHORT WAVE AXIS WITH WELL
ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING EASTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHWARD
THRU EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ALSO...BAND OF CONVECTION RIDING
ALL ALONG OUR MOUNTAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND FEED INTO THIS SHORT
WAVE ACTION. BOTTOM LINE IS...LOOKS LIKE A WET EVENING AS EVERYTHING
LIFT UP...AND HAVE RAISED POPS MOSTLY TO CAT. AFTER 06Z...THINGS
QUIET AS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH FOG FORMATION
LATER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR EVANSVILLE
IN. WHILE TOUGH TO SEE ON SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...TN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
VA AND NC.

SPC RECENTLY ISSUED A SWOMCD INDICATING A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SOME OF OUR VA AND NE KY COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS MOVE N/NE WITH TIME.

EXPECT STORMS TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AFTER
04Z AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND THE AIRMASS BECOMES LESS
UNSTABLE WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE.

MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE
MOUNTAINS WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME CHANCE OF STORMS.

OTHER THAN THE STORMS...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FORMATION
OF DENSE FOG AS MUCH OF THE REGION IS QUITE WET AND THERE SHOULD
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWLAND
COUNTIES. WILL NOT CURRENTLY HIT THE FOG TOO HARD TONIGHT AS
UNCERTAINTY IS STILL QUITE HIGH.

SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ANY WEAK
SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS..ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STORMS TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE MID WEEK WITH UPPER HIGH PUSHING
WESTWARD ONTO THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE LOW RETROGRADES WEST...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO 1.7
TO 1.8 INCHES MID WEEK. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST...WITH HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. ELECTED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN
WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS IF NOT
ALL OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THURSDAY...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A SIGNIFICANT WAVE
MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...CREATING AN AREA OF HEAVIER
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND EASTERN KY. RAISED POPS ACROSS
THESE AREAS TO LIKELY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...AND NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL
TREND. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS BY WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
WESTWARD...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
SHORT WAVE WITH ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER...WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. EXPECT MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN HEAVIER CONVECTION THRU
06Z...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS. AFTER 06Z...WITH THE WET GROUND
EXPECTED...EXPECT IFR FOG ALONG RIVERS AND IN VALLEY AFFECTING THE
MAJOR TERMINALS.

AFTER 13Z...IMPROVING RAPIDLY TO VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING AFTER 17Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MIMIC OF ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION EARLY
TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR TWO. DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG
DEPENDS GREATLY ON OCCURRENCE OF RAINFALL.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO IFR IN LOWER
CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-020945-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
536 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPETITIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. IF IT APPEARS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS...OR MOVE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE PAST DAY OR TWO...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. STRONGER CELLS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE IN
PERSISTENT OR REPETITIVE STORMS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
946 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW BANCROFT           38.48N  81.88W
07/01/2013                   PUTNAM             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            STANDING WATER ON ROUTE 34 ACROSS FROM LIBRARY.

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER RLX1300685

LZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
947 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

OHZ067-075-076-085-WVZ007>009-017-020245-
ATHENS OH-JACKSON WV-MASON WV-MEIGS OH-MORGAN OH-WASHINGTON OH-
WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
947 PM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ATHENS...EASTERN
MEIGS...NORTHEASTERN MASON...NORTHERN JACKSON...SOUTHERN MORGAN...
WEST CENTRAL WIRT...WESTERN WASHINGTON AND WESTERN WOOD COUNTIES...

AT 942 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTH OF
FORKED RUN STATE PARK...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BELLEVILLE...AND REEDSVILLE AROUND 955 PM...
TUPPERS PLAINS...AND MINERALWELLS AROUND 1000 PM...WASHINGTON...
LUBECK...COOLVILLE...AND DAVISVILLE AROUND 1005 PM...LITTLE HOCKING
AND BLENNERHASSETT AROUND 1010 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
142 AND 179 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3899 8147 3875 8196 3957 8202 3959 8154
      3959 8149

26