Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DEEPER
MOISTURE ALONG EAST COAST CREEPS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENT CONVECTION KEEPING US BUSY OVERNIGHT. DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 500 MB MOVING THROUGH 06Z TO 12Z.  LARGE EXPANSION
OF CONVECTION OCCURRED 03Z TO 05Z.  RATES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY .5 TO 1
IN AN HOUR IN THE DOWNPOURS THRU 06Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
WATER PROBLEMS.

WILL MOVE CLUSTER NORTH THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AND MID OHIO VALLEY 08Z
TO 12Z.  TRY TO HAVE A LULL IN POPS 14Z TO 18Z...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
18Z THROUGH 00Z. 00Z NAM FASTER BRINGING 500 MB VORT MAX EAST INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY 00Z TUESDAY...COMPARED TO 00Z GFS. WENT ALONG
WITH THE FASTER SPEED.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR MAXIMUM ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES WITH LOWER
AND MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AXIS OF UPR TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS MID MS VALLEY EARL NEXT WEEK.
THIS COMBINED WITH FLOW ARND BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP GULF
MOISTURE TO ADVECT N INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED. CONT WITH THE DIURNAL NATURE TO
POPS THOUGH...WITH EXPECTATION THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WANES AFTER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. STILL FILL MTNS MAY GET A BOOST IN
COVERAGE WITH LLVL SE FLOW. HARD TO FIGURE HOW MUCH OF THE CLDS
DISSOLVE WITH NIGHT FALL...WITH MDLS SHOWING BROAD INFILTRATION OF
MID/HI LVL MOISTURE BESIDES JUST THE LLVL MOISTURE. TEMPS REMAIN AT
MORE SEASONABLE LVLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRADES W AS UPR TROF TO W FILLS IN. THIS SHOULD
SHIFT AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE PERHAPS W OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
EXTENDED. UNTIL THEN...UNSETTLED WX WILL BE THE RULE WITH MAINLY
DIURNAL NATURE OF POPS WITH HIGH CHC EACH AFTN...WANING
OVERNIGHT...ABSENT ANY UPR IMPULSE WITHIN THE S FLOW. NOT EXPECTING
TOTAL WASHOUTS EACH DAY AS A RESULT BUT INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
MEAN DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. PWATS LOOK TO CLIMB TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY WEEKS END. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR WATER CONCERNS...BUT MID
LVL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOVING. CONCERN WOULD BE FOR PERHAPS
SOME S TO N TRAINING LINES. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TEMPS
EXPECTED...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS AND SOMEWHAT MUGGY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE CLUSTERS OF MOSTLY SHOWERS...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER...SHOULD MOVE NORTH INTO MID OHIO INCLUDING EASTERN OHIO AND
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA 08Z TO 12Z.  VSBY AOB 3 MILES IN LOCAL
DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT BROKEN WITH LAYERS
ABOVE.

WITH THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THINKING ANY FOG THAT NOW DEVELOPS
WOULD BE IN ITS WAKE IN THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA COAL FIELD AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA 08Z TO 12Z.

LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOPING 06Z TO 12Z ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...AND
MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BECKLEY.  HARD TO DETERMINE
IF THAT LOWER CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DID BRING IT
BACK TO SOUTHERN PLATEAU BETWEEN 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY.

TRIED TO HAVE A LULL IN CONVECTION 12Z TO 18Z...BUT SOME SHOWERS
COULD EASILY LINGER AT 12Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

HAVE CEILINGS 2 TO 4 THSD FT BROKEN 15Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THINKING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING NNE 18Z MONDAY TO 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN DECREASING AFTER 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL VARY.
LOWER CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING BECKLEY MAY BE MORE
PERSISTENT THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/01/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO IFR IN LOWER
CEILINGS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB

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