Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
953 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT. DRIER/TURNING COLDER
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...UPDATED FOR DROPPING TORNADO WATCH IN THE WEST...AND
EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN THE EAST TO INCLUDE ALL LOW
LAND COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...TIMING OF FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

730 PM UPDATE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
REMAINDER OF EXTREME NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WESTERN HALF OF WEST
VIRGINIA TIL 1 AM MONDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. WITH A GOOD LINE OF CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST...WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS
WELL. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA FOR THE THREAT OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS AS THE LINE OF STORMS
AND COLD FRONT APPROACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TO BE LARGELY QUIET...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME LOW CONFIDENCE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES
MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TOUCHING ON THIS MORE THAN THE NAM...ALTHOUGH SREF
ALSO HINTS AT LIGHT QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. 850MB TEMPS
ONLY IN THE -6C RANGE HOWEVER...SO MAY END UP REMOVING THESE IN
UPCOMING FORECASTS. AS IT STANDS...ONLY HAVE ISOLATED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN FOR A FEW OF THE RIDGES.

WILL HAVE SOME WIND TO DEAL WITH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WITH THE DOWN GLIDING WIND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MOUNTAIN GUSTS OVER 30KTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT WILL SUBSIDE BY DAWN TUESDAY.

ASIDE FROM THIS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SHORT TERM. MAX TEMPS
CRASH ON TUESDAY IN THE COLDER AIRMASS...AND WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE
40S...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN LARGELY CLEAR SKIES...LESS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
AS MENTIONED FOR WEAK NORTHWEST UPSLOPE MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW
PROVIDING A SLOW WARM UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW MID WEEK WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD BY
WEEKS END. THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MURKY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING AMID A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE NE CONUS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
03Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...
BIG FEATURE THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
TONIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...PROVIDING MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH ANY STRONG CONVECTION
AND WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR NOT FAR BEHIND THE FRONT.

06Z TO 12Z...FROM WEST TO EAST...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR.

AFTER 12Z. VFR...WITH SCT CU LOWLANDS AND SCT-BKN CU MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT FROM THE WEST BY 16Z WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
MPH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH .

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND COLD FRONT COULD VARY
AND HOUR OR TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       MON 11/18/13
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
940 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

KYZ105-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-190245-
LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
940 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND MUCH
OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KYZ101>103-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ033>038-046-047-
190245-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-
MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
940 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND GST     HARRISVILLE             39.21N  81.05W
11/17/2013  E60 MPH          RITCHIE            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1300979

TAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1007 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 E POINT PLEASANT      38.85N  82.02W
11/17/2013  M54 MPH          MASON              WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1300980

TAX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1009 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

VAZ004-WVZ024-025-033>035-180415-
BUCHANAN VA-LOGAN WV-MCDOWELL WV-MINGO WV-RALEIGH WV-WYOMING WV-
1009 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR WYOMING...SOUTHERN LOGAN...NORTHERN
MCDOWELL...SOUTHERN MINGO...CENTRAL RALEIGH AND NORTHERN BUCHANAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM EST...

AT 1006 PM EST...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILLIAMSON TO WILLIAMSON TO 10 MILES
SOUTH OF WILLIAMSON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR SARAH ANN AROUND 1015 PM...BRUNO AROUND
1030 PM...COALWOOD AROUND 1045 PM AND MABEN AROUND 1100 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3740 8215 3753 8199 3753 8205 3755 8208
      3755 8213 3759 8213 3759 8216 3762 8218
      3762 8221 3765 8223 3766 8227 3771 8222
      3778 8125 3759 8137 3737 8147

30