Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT...DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SOME MOISTURE REMAINS AS A HIGH AND WARM TEMPS SET UP FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A MOIST NE TO EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HAS BEEN ONGOING FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AND AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING GETS INTO FULL SWING.
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. AT THIS POINT
STILL NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WATER ISSUES. 12Z RNK SOUNDING
INDICATED PW VALUES AT 1.08 INCHES...AND SO FAR PRECIPITATION FROM
ANY ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT.

BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED CU FIELD SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH...BUT THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER TONIGHT
AND ON SATURDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES IN FROM THE EAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND SOMEWHAT DRIER
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
TEMPERATURE FORECAST OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO A
FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
STILL EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURE BEGINNING TO WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A 598/599 MB HIGH OVER THE AREA.  EVEN
THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN WET IT WON/T TAKE LONG TO DRY OUT
BEING JULY.  EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...POSSIBLE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SUMMER.  RAISED
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND DEW POINTS.  THERE WILL STILL BE MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH THUS DIURNAL POPS.  THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO FLATTEN OUT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY.  TIMING WITH THE FRONT IS
STILL IFFY AS IT IS SEVEN DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY... UPR LOW SLOWLY TREKKING SW INTO SE
KY BY THIS AFTN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES...AND
ACROSS NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF AFTER 00Z...WITH A BRIEF
RETURN TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR
STRATUS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES...WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
LOWLANDS...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN ON FRIDAY. ANY
FOG THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
13Z. IFR/MVFR STRATUS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR AFTER 15-16Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
     SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BE DIFFERENT THAN FORECAST. TIMING AND EXTENT OF
STRATUS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES TONIGHT...AS WELL AS FOG
CONDITIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...SL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-131800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
157 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
651 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             4 NE CHARLESTON         38.39N  81.58W
07/12/2013  E0.25 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1300764

JM

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