River Flood Warning 6, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
730 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST WITH ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WET SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
QUICKER TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW OVERNIGHT.
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MINOR IN THE LOWLANDS BUT COULD ACCRETE A BIT
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME TERRAIN CATCHES THE COLD LAYER BENEATH
THE WARM LAYER ALOFT.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COUPLE MORE WAVES MOVING UP THE COLD
FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST. ACTUAL COLD FRONT IS SE OF
CWA...BUT BELOW 0C AIR REMAINS MAINLY NW OF CWA...WITH SLIGHT WARM
NOSE ALOFT STILL IN PLACE AS WELL. RAIN/WINTRY MIX LINE APPEARS TO
BE NUDGING INTO NW PERRY COUNTY AS OF 18Z. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...OR VERY SLOWLY COOL THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL NEXT WAVE PASSES AND COOLER AIR CAN BEGIN TO FILTER
IN. THAT WAVE LOOKS TO BE IN CENTRAL KY RIGHT NOW. HAVE ONE MORE
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE NW AS WELL THIS EVENING...AND THEN PRECIP
INTENSITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. USED A BLEND OF NAM/RAP FOR WARM NOSE INTO
TONIGHT...THEN TRANSITIONED TO NAM/GFS BLEND...AND USED THIS TO
DEVELOP P-TYPE TRANSITION ZONE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS PROCESS
COOLED THINGS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO HAVE WINTRY
PRECIP MIXING IN JUST A BIT FASTER. DUE TO THIS...ADDED JACKSON
COUNTY OHIO TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.
COUNTY AVERAGE SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS PERRY COUNTY REMAINS
MARGINAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA...BUT STILL EXPECT A DOSE OF HEAVY
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE NW HALF OF THE COUNTY. COULD GET A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS LOWLANDS AS COLDER TEMPS DROP SE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HOWEVER WITH WARM/WET GROUND THE ONLY ICE ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND ONLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES -- FOR EXAMPLE
TOPS OF CARS.

USED NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BY BLENDING
MAV/MET TEMPS TONIGHT AND MAV/CONSALL TEMPS FOR HIGHS. THIS KEEPS
TEMPS DROPPING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LOWER
ELEVATIONS MAY GET A LITTLE DIURNAL RISE BUT ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
NEAR/ALONG MOUNTAIN ZONES TOWARDS THE REGION. AS WITH PREVIOUS
SYSTEM...GOOD MOISTURE SURGE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AIDED BY 30-40 KT LLJ. PW VALUES DONT LOOK AS THOUGH THEY
WILL GET AS HIGH AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM...GENERALLY TOPPING OUT AT
JUST ABOVE AN INCH.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START OFF
AS SNOW SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT TRANSITION TO
SLEET...AND/OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 09Z
SUNDAY UNTIL 09Z MONDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. LOWLAND ZONES
WILL SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...KEPT THE NON DIURNAL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY...AND EXPECT ALL AREAS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WV ZONES...BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER
IN THE DAY SUNDAY. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE A GENERAL 0.25 TO 0.5
INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION...THIS IS GENERALLY THE WINTER STORM
WATCH COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY TAKES CONTROL TUESDAY AND LASTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UNDER DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF SUNSHINE BUT COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
WEEK...THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTER SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF
CLOUDS...EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL RANGES IN TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEK...BRINGING QUITE COLD NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COMPLICATED FCST BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY NOT FAVORABLE FOR AVIATION AT
ALL UNTIL SAT MORNING.

WIDESPREAD IFR OVERNIGHT IN RAIN THAT TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND SNOW
AT THE OHIO RIVER...SLEET AND SNOW W OF THERE AT THE START OF THE
FCST.  THE TRANSITION SHIFTS E AS TEMPERATURES DROP...WITH FREEZING
/ FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT BY 09Z.  THERE WILL BE SOME
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM THE W
AND SW OVERNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING INTO THE AREA SAT WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR STRATOCU IN THE MORNING GIVING
WAY TO VFR BY NOON LOWLANDS AND DURING THE AFTERNOON MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW WILL BE N TO NW WHILE MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO
LIGHT NW W OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY ON...THIS SHIFT REACHING THE
MOUNTAINS BY 06Z SAT...LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT THEN REMAINING THROUGHOUT
THE AREA THROUGH SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CATEGORICAL AND PRECIP CHANGES MAY
VARY OVERNIGHT.  TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT SAT COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT...WITH STREAM FLOODING
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  DESPITE THIS...MOST MAINSTEM
RIVERS SHOULD CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEKEND.

HOWEVER...ANOTHER WET SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  WITH THE RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM THE CURRENT
EVENT...THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING REMAINS...AND EVEN INCREASES.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ADDITIONAL PARTS FOR PARKERSBURG ASOS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AT TIMES UNTIL THEN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-037>040-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ035>038-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OHZ067-075-076-
     083>087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ067-075-
     076-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ066.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM

HYDROLOGY...TRM/MZ
EQUIPMENT...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ085>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-039-040-071930-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
217 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ035-036-046-071930-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-POCAHONTAS-
217 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER PROBLEMS IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ037-071930-
NICHOLAS-
217 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ066-071930-
PERRY-
217 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

OHZ067-075-076-083-084-071930-
MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-
217 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WVZ038-047-071930-
WEBSTER-RANDOLPH-
217 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WINTER STORM WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-071930-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
217 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR WATER PROBLEMS IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
927 PM EST FRI DEC 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     FLOOD            SUMMERSVILLE            38.28N  80.85W
12/06/2013                   NICHOLAS           WV   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING REPORTED ALONG BIRCH RIVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1301161

SLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EST FRI DEC 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            1 ESE SUTTON            38.66N  80.70W
12/06/2013                   BRAXTON            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            CARPENTERS FORK IN CRAIG MOUNTAIN IS CLOSED DUE TO A
            LANDSLIDE AT AROUND 915 PM EST. LITTLE BIRCH ROAD IS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. FALLS RUN ROAD ON ROUTE 19 IS
            CLOSED TOWARDS THE LEWIS COUNTY LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1301162

SLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
933 PM EST FRI DEC 06 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            5 SW TALLMANSVILLE      38.86N  80.25W
12/06/2013                   UPSHUR             WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVERGREEN-ALTON ROAD IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH
            WATER...THE ROAD IS CLOSED

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1301163

TAX