River Flood Warning 2, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
839 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
830 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WESTERN
CWA...HAVE SEEN SOME 40+KTS AND EVEN A 53 KT GUSTS ALONG THE
FRONT...SO ADJUSTED START OF WIND ADVISORY TO NOW INSTEAD OF 06Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FIRST OF A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS PUSHING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND FRONT DUE TO PASS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...EXITING TO THE EAST BY AROUND 06Z. SIGNIFICANT CAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE HEELS OF THE FRONT.

UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL QPF POINT TOWARD A ONE OR TWO INCH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION...LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATE CONSIDERABLE
ENHANCEMENT OVER EASTERN KY AND TN AS WARM CONVEYOR BELT SETS UP
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

PW VALUES RUNNING HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND DEEP MOISTURE IS
EVIDENT. THESE OBSERVED FACTORS AGREE WELL WITH EXPECTED MODEL
OUTPUT TRENDS. THUS...DECIDED TO EXPAND FFA FURTHER TO THE WEST TO
INCLUDE CENTRAL WV...AND THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS FOR THIS EVENING.

FOR TEMPS...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INHERITED VALUES.
LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO COINCIDE WITH
EXPECTED 85H TEMPS.  IN ADDITION...USED A NON-DIURNAL TREND DURING
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR CAA.

EXPECT PRECIP TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. BY THEN...BULK
OF THE HEAVIEST AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA...LEAVING MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW LEVEL COOLING QUICKLY PROVIDES FAVORABLE CRYSTAL GROWTH
TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE MOISTURE BECOMING SHALLOW.  SO WANTED TO
INCREASE THE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AIR FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
COULD EASILY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
WITH AN INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.  HAD TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...THEN TRY TO RECOVER A FEW DEGREES IN THE
LOWLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WE STILL HAVE ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT TO THE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  HAVE MAINLY A 1 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION WITH
THAT FEATURE.  COULD LEAD TO SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WHERE
CRITERIA IS LOWER.

THE COLDEST AIR AT 850MB PASSES FRIDAY.  HELD HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE ZERO FOR OUR HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...EXAMPLE SNOWSHOE. FIGURING
850 MB TEMPERATURES MINUS 19C TO MINUS 20C.

THE DRIER ARCTIC AIR MAY FINALLY STOP THE FLAKES FLYING FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

NEXT CLIPPER STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...AS OF THIS DISTANCE...THINKING ADVISORIES MAY BE EVENTUALLY
NEEDED.  SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP UP ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SOUTH.  LEFT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW AS THE CHARACTER...BUT COULD EASILY BE LIGHT
SNOW STRATIFORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE LONG TERM IS SORTING OUT THE NUMBER OF
AND TIMING OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA. STILL KEEPING
WITH THE TREND OF SEASONABLY COLD FOR THE AREA WITH BRIEF
MODIFICATIONS TOWARDS NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BUT THE DOMINATING
HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL KEEP IT WINTER
LIKE. LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE BACK HALF OF THE SATURDAY
SYSTEM...AND EXPECT ANOTHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
POSSIBLY ONE ON WEDNESDAY. MAY NEED TO TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IN COMING FORECASTS WITH THE PATTERN
CLIPPER DOMINANT. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN TO
SNOW WITH THE DIURNAL TREND FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COULD SEE THIS
SHIFTING TOWARDS A COLDER OVERALL REGIME AND MORE SNOW THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEEING BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...BUT AS
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE BACK INTO MVFR CIGS/VIS...WITH SOME
POCKETS OF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. ALSO EXPECT INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS COLDER AIR
SURGES IN...TEMPS WILL DROP ALLOWING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW...WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS COULD VARY AND WIND GUSTS
COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 01/31/13
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>037-039-040.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005-006-
     013>016-018-024>040-046-047.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ038-
     046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/26
NEAR TERM...KMC/MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ

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