Frost Advisory 10, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN TONIGHT BEHIND FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM USHERING CHILLY AIRMASS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL RIGHT ON SCHEDULE TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRATUS DECK HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY
WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED MIXING AND SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE
PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLIES. HOWEVER WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...STILL EXPECTING TO SEE THE WINDS KICK UP
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. BY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I79 CORRIDOR AT
00Z. THESE WILL THEN EXIT THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO
BREEZY WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT EITHER
FROST OR WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. STRATUS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BREAK UP FAIRLY SUNDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA GIVEN WAY TO A RATHER NICE DRY
AND SUNNY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LONGWAVE TROUGH
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AND
DROP A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
PINWHEELS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY NORTH
OF THE CWA...BUT WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA INTO THE COAL
FIELDS. THIS REINFORCES THE COOL AIR...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER LOW ORGANIZES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE COLD AIR
MAKER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PACKAGE.
INTRODUCED SOME NEW NUMBERS THAT...IN THE END...ARE NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COULD BE FLIRTING WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FROST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TREND SLIGHTLY MILDER BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. DID UP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
SLIGHTLY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DESPITE THE
COLDER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO FILTER IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AN EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH FORMING. MODELS ARE
SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USHERING IN
MUCH COLDER AIR. SOME DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST HOWEVER IN THE
DISTURBANCES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER AIR. WILL USE A ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH WILL NOT PUT IN MUCH DETAIL WITH THE POST
FRONTAL SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 20 KTS LATE AFTERNOON.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE
AFTERNOON DROPPING TO MVFR AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOCAL MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 08Z WHERE SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS LIGHTER...BUT LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: IF CLOUDS CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN FASTER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOG MAY BE MORE DENSE THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/JR
NEAR TERM...JR
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>037-039-040-201900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
249 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR EVEN ISOLATE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS...WIND...AND PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD
THE FROST AWAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WVZ038-046-047-201900-
WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
249 PM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...CLOUDS...WIND...AND
PRECIPITATION COULD PREVENT THIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.