Flash Flood Watch 17, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
727 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM UPDATE...ADDED THUNDER TO THE WEATHER GRIDS...AS SEVERAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES OBSERVED SO FAR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MDLS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT AREA OF SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE MTNS AS OF 06Z. SEEMS
TO BE TIED TO SOME MID LVL FORCING AND LLVL DEFORMATION AXIS.
ELECTED TO ROLL WITH COVERAGE THRU MORNING PER SCT WORDING AMID
CHC POPS AS THIS GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF TO E. MAY SEE ANOTHER BAND
OF ISOLD TO SCT SHRA AHEAD OF ACTUAL WARM FRONT WHICH TREKS NE
ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING. WITH SHOWALTERS ARND 0C...ALLOWED FOR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER PREDAWN. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN PCPN CHC LATER
TDY. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME AGREEMENT ON VORT LOBE PASSING
THRU THIS AFTN AS UPR RIDGE BRIEFLY TRIES TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE THRU
TN VALLEY AND INTO KY. WILL CARRY SOME CHC POPS EVERYWHERE THIS
AFTN WITH PERHAPS BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE C LOWLANDS TO I79
CORRIDOR. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH SOME
PEAKS OF SUN ACROSS NE KY/SW VA. AS HEIGHTS BUILD NE INTO AREA AND
WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN TO BE
REALIZED AT LEAST ACROSS SE OH AND W LOWLANDS.

AMPLIFYING UPR TROF WILL DIG SE INTO GREAT LAKES AND UPR MIDWEST
TONIGHT WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MARCHING E TOWARD AREA.
NAM/SREF/GEM ARE ON FASTER SIDE OF ENVELOPE WITH GFS SOMEWHAT
SLOWER WITH COLD FRONT. CULPRIT APPEARS TO BE SFC WAVE DEPICTED BY
ALL MDLS TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT WITH GFS TAKING THIS WAVE RIGHT
ACROSS CWA SAT MORNING AS NAM TAKES S OF AREA. INCLINED TO ROLL
CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION GIVEN STRONG JET DYNAMICS FROM THIS
AMPLIFIED TROF. THUS BELIEVE FRONT WILL TRY TO SLOW DOWN ONCE INTO
CWA WITH DELAY FROPA ABOUT 6 HRS COMPARED TO FASTER NAM/SREF/GEM.
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS INTO LOWLANDS PREDAWN. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
STRENGTH OF JET STREAK AND GOOD LLVL MOISTURE FLUX...KEPT HVY RA
WORDING FROM PREV SHIFT. AS FOR THUNDER...DESPITE LACK OF SFC
INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMICS WARRANT KEEPING THUNDER CHC IN ALONG
AND AHEAD OF FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. WITHOUT A
CLEAR REASON TO PICK ONE SET OF MODELS OVER THE OTHER...WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST ON TIMING. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN...FRONT IS FAIRLY VIGOROUS...SO WILL RAISE POPS.

MODELS SHOWING SOME UPSLOPE LIFT AND LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL
MOISTURE GETS TOO THIN.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND REMAINS INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY PATTERN WITH COOL NIGHTS AND COMFORTABLE DAYS...WITH WARMER
AFTERNOON READINGS BY DAY 6 AND DAY 7.

SOME LIMITED MOISTURE SNEAKS WEST AND NORTHWEST...FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CURRENTLY WILL KEEP POPS AOB 14
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LOW STRATUS/FG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. WARM FRONT TO CROSS
THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA WITH IT. HARD TO
FIGURE SHRA/CONVECTION CHC THIS AFTN BUT A VORT LOBE PASSING THRU
MAY SPARK SOME AFTN CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO MTNS.
OTHERWISE SCT TO BKN LOW END VFR CIGS AMID SW FLOW.

STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 06Z WITH AN AREA OF MOD TO HVY
RA EXPECTED WITH IT BY 12Z...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LOW CIGS THROUGH
MORNING MAY VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-210700-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
251 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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