Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1057 AM MST SAT FEB 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING.
ONGOING SNOWFALL AND THE SYSTEM WHICH THEY AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS INDICATED IN
EARLIER FORECASTS...SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE TROUGH BRINGING THIS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. NATIONAL GUIDANCE DEMONSTRATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES. THIS PUSH SEEMS
ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE OVER UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS. HAVE INCREASED
PRECIP PROBABILITIES A BIT ACROSS THE OWL CREEKS AROUND
THERMOPOLIS...THOUGH THE INCREASE WAS NOT OVERLY SIGNIFICANT.
BECAUSE OF THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE...AND SOME WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
TODAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANY WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
DIVIDE...THE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EVALUATED FOR ANY NEEDED HIGHLIGHTS.

OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS NORTHERLY
FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. MODELS THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER...STRONGER SLUG OF MOISTURE
TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS IN
SOMEWHAT FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPCOMING TROUGH MAY MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE MONDAY EVENING.
SPECIFIC AREAS RECEIVING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS AT
QUESTION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN AS
A WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW TO AREAS BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH A CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR
AND OTHER FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH BEFORE ANOTHER ONE QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN IS BY FAR THE DRIEST WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
AND IS THE OUTLIER. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
BY THE GFS...GEM AND DGEX...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INTRODUCED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES AND
POTENTIAL FOR CSI BANDING AS LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 7.5
DEG/KM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING BUILDS IN
THEREAFTER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES
POSSIBLE IN THE REMNANTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN WY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...
LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. AFTER 21Z CONDITIONS IN THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY IN THE WEST...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

A COLD FRONT AND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WY FROM 19Z
THROUGH 00Z...BRINGING AREAS OF SNOW AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
THEN THE COLD FRONT AND SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO FREMONT COUNTY
AROUND 00Z AND INTO NATRONA COUNTY BY 03Z. THE SNOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE IN FREMONT COUNTY UNTIL AROUND 09Z TONIGHT
AND UNTIL 15Z IN NATRONA COUNTY. THE SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND THE
KCPR AND KLND AIRPORTS.  CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL WY WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE AFTER 09Z SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE DIVIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ADDITIONAL
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN OUR WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO THEN MOVE EAST OF THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING...IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES. GUSTY WIND WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...CREATING SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER WINTRY SYSTEM THEN POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
WYZ001-012-013-023-024.

&&

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM

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