Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE SEVERE WEATHER OF YESTERDAY HAS ENDED. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WE ARE OUT OF THE WOODS COMPLETELY YET. RADAR DOES SHOW SOME
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND A
JET STREAK PROVIDING SOME LIFT. ORIENTATION OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A BIT DIFFERENT TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NAM DOES
SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING IN OUT OF UTAH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH A BIT MORE JET ENERGY SO WE HAVE
ADDED SOME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO SOUTHERN WYOMING
OVER TO AROUND CASPER. FURTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT MORE
CAPPED SO THE SHOW MAY BE LATER THERE. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFLUENCE AND STILL SOME GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
JOHNSON COUNTY AND ACROSS THE BIG HORN RANGE TO THE BIG HORN BASIN
WHICH IS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO PRESIDE.
THE MAIN THREATS ONCE AGAIN WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.
THE THREAT OF STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE OTHER THREAT TODAY WILL BE WIND.
PROBABLY NOT HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS
TO 40 TO 50 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES WITH THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

QUIETER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR FRIDAY AS A COOLER
AIR MASS MOVES INTO MOST OF WYOMING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY TO UNDER 0.5 FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW SO THE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LESS. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH AND FLATTEN OUT BUT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS BUT MOST
AREAS WILL BE MAINLY DRY. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A MAINLY QUIET
DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE
WEST OF WYOMING ONCE AGAIN. ONE POSSIBLE SMALL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
MAY BE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TRYING TO SNEAK INTO FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE CENTERED NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE NW COAST...AROUND 45N 135W.  THIS UPPER PATTERN WILL
PROGRESS SLOWLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW PUSHING ONTO NW
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.  UPPER
LOW THEN IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR NE UP BACKSIDE OF RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY.  CONTINUED OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL RESULT IN HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL LIE ALONG AND NORTH
OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AND DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

ON MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN AN EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY/CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
ACROSS NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A DRY AND WARM SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF A KJAC TO KCPR
LINE...WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF SEVERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. STORMS
NORTH OF THIS LINE WILL BE ABLE TO ATTAIN STRONGER CHARACTERISTICS
WITH BRIEF BUT VERY STRONG TO SEVERE ERRATIC WINDS AND GS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING SOME STRONGER STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF WYOMING. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN
THESE AREAS. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FAVORED AREAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR. EXPECT A QUIETER
AND COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1155 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

WYZ001>020-022>030-141200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
1155 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.  A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JOHNSON...BIG HORN AND PARK COUNTIES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AROUND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SUNDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH.

MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH...ANY HAIL...FLOODING...OR ANY DAMAGE. THANK YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1157 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             20 S BUFFALO            44.05N 106.72W
06/12/2013  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            WY   COCORAHS

            HAIL LASTED 10 MINUTES AND SHREDDED LEAVES.

&&

JANGLIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1158 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

WYZ007-015>018-131845-
LANDER FOOTHILLS WY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS WY-UPPER WIND
RIVER BASIN WY-WIND RIVER BASIN WY-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST WY-
1158 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOT SPRINGS AND CENTRAL
FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM MDT...

AT 1155 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES WEST OF
FORT WASHAKIE TO SINKS CANYON STATE PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
FORT WASHAKIE AROUND 1205 PM MDT.
U.S. HWY 287 MILE MARKER 80...HWY JCT 287 AND 132...MILFORD AND
LANDER AROUND 1210 PM MDT.
HWY JCT 287 AND 26...BULL LAKE...DIVERSION DAM REST AREA AND
WINKLEMAN DOME AROUND 1215 PM MDT.
U.S. HWY 26 MILE MARKER 100...HUDSON AND ETHETE AROUND 1220 PM MDT.
PILOT BUTTE RESERVOIR AND MORTON AROUND 1225 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4355 10864 4311 10817 4263 10887 4307 10934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 226DEG 39KT 4306 10917 4277 10885

SKRBAC