Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
129 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON THURSDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRY
CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THE
WATCH AREA HAS NOT CHANGED, IT STILL COVERS FROM RENO-TAHOE-
PYRAMID LAKE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV. THIS
REGION WAS MOSTLY CLEAR OF CLOUDS EARLY TODAY ALLOWING SURFACE
HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE HAS BEEN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN, 1 INCH HAIL AND OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. STORM
MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AT 20-30 MPH.
THE FASTER MOVING STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY TO CREATE FLASH FLOODING
EXCEPT OVER VERY STEEP TERRAIN. HOWEVER, STORM TRAINING AND
CONVERGING OF STORMS HAS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO CREATE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE WATCHED AREA. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
OVER STEEP TERRAIN AND LOCATIONS WITH ANTECEDENT WET SOIL
CONDITIONS FROM YESTERDAY'S STORMS.

AN IMPULSE EJECTING FROM THE LOW ARRIVES THIS EVENING. IT WILL
PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FROM ALPINE COUNTY NORTHWARD
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND FROM I-80 NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA. WETTING
RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST OF THESE STORMS, BUT THERE IS AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR NEW FIRE STARTS FROM ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES
THAT OCCUR AWAY FROM THE RAIN CORES.

THURSDAY, AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD, THE BEST FORCING AND
INSTABILITY SHIFTS NORTHWARD TO NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV WHERE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS REMAINS POSSIBLE. AS DRIER AIR SWINGS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE LOW, WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE. ANY ONGOING OR
HOLDOVER FIRES MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH. JCM

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ONLY MINUSCULE CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY BEFORE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POPS UP BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

A TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST LONGITUDE AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHOULD KEEP A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STAY
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST, MID 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA.
WINDS WILL KICK UP IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WITH PEAK GUSTS AT
25-30 MPH.

A FEW MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO EITHER BUILD THE RIDGE A
BIT STRONGER TO THE WEST OR TRY TO DIG THE TROUGH A BIT DEEPER INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR NEXT WEEK. IF THE RIDGE WINS THE BATTLE
THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND
GERLACH AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS MOISTURE WORKS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE (SMALL
CHANGES IN PATTERN WILL DETERMINE DRY OR NOT) WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. SNYDER/BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN SIERRA,
WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAIN
THREATS ARE HEAVY RAIN, HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50
KTS. AN IMPULSE EJECTING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE COULD PROVIDE SHOWERS
FROM KTVL NORTHWARD FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH FOR THURSDAY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF KTVL-KNFL. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING NVZ001>005.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
     EVENING CAZ070>073.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
550 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-221300-
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-MONO-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-
MINDEN AREA-WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
550 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA...
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SIERRA...WESTERN
NEVADA...AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN...HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN. A FEW STORMS MAY LAST INTO THE
LATE EVENING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY IN NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA NORTH ON INTERSTATE 80 WITH THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FROM SUSANVILLE NORTH. FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE ALSO WELCOME BY POSTING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO FACEBOOK PAGE...OR ON TWITTER
USING...AT NWSRENO.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV/HAZARDS/REV  (ALL LOWER CASE)

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