Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Reno, NV

361 
WGUS75 KREV 282031
FFSREV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
131 PM PDT SUN JUL 28 2013

NVC019-282200-
/O.CON.KREV.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-130728T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON NV-
131 PM PDT SUN JUL 28 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM PDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL LYON COUNTY...

AT 129 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SWEETWATER
  SUMMIT

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE
IN FLOOD PRONE AND LOW LYING AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. DO
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFT WATERS BY FOOT OR AUTOMOBILE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. A FEW INCHES OF FAST FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD.

LAT...LON 3854 11933 3866 11917 3854 11906 3843 11906
      3842 11916

$$

TOLBY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
817 AM PDT SUN JUL 28 2013

.UPDATE...

AREAS OF SMOKE ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MONO COUNTY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
MINERAL COUNTY. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE ASPEN FIRE IN CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO
BURN. EXPECT POOR AIR QUALITY, LOWER VISIBILITY, AND SMOKE DENSE
ENOUGH TO CREATE A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CEILING AT TIMES. BOYD

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM PDT SUN JUL 28 2013/

SYNOPSIS...
AS DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA, THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIMITED MAINLY TO MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES TODAY AND MONDAY
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE. OTHERWISE, DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...
THE MOIST AIR MASS AND UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTH TODAY AS TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
US PUSHES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL
PUSH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES, CELLS WILL LIKELY
MOVE A LITTLE QUICKER TODAY AND LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOUTH OF A
BRIDGEPORT-WALKER LAKE LINE, WHERE ONLY SPOTTY RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY.

BY MONDAY, THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW WHICH HAS PERSISTED OFF THE CA
COAST IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CA AND
CENTRAL NV, LEADING TO ONE FINAL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN MONO AND EASTERN MINERAL COUNTY FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE
ESPECIALLY FROM RENO-TAHOE NORTHWARD WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH AS TROUGH BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE WEST COAST.

NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS
FINALLY SPREADS ACROSS ALL OF MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MINERAL-MONO CONVERGENCE ZONE
BUT VERTICAL GROWTH WILL BE CAPPED. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THE NAM SWINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN TROUGH A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL STICK WITH THE GFS/ECMWF WHICH
WOULD KEEP MOST LATE DAY GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. IF THE NAM
VERIFIES THE WIND SPEEDS WOULD BE ABOUT 5 MPH HIGHER.

WITH A GRADUAL DROP IN 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 700 MB TEMPS TODAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY, MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO DROP BY 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY
THRU MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE ON TUESDAY. AS THE NEW
WORK WEEK BEGINS, HIGHS IN MOST OF WESTERN NV WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE TAHOE
BASIN AND SIERRA VALLEYS. THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR WESTERN NV AND UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS. MJD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT
MORE WEDNESDAY AND LOWER HIGHS THURSDAY. AS FOR WEDNESDAY, MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST DEEPENING A BIT
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. SFC AND THERMAL
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AS WINDS INCREASE ALOFT WITH A 80 KT JET OVERHEAD.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD MID-SUMMER WIND EVENT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH
FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS WILL BE A FIRE WX
CONCERN AS HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN LOW.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY, TEMPS WILL COOL TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE WITH 70S IN THE SIERRA AND 80S WRN NV. THE FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS WEST THURS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE
MORE TYPICAL THU-SAT WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
ALSO WARM 5 DEGREES OR SO GETTING BACK TO AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN. NO
THREAT OF MUCH PRECIP SEEN ALTHOUGH A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER IF THE TROUGH DROPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TSTMS TODAY SOUTH OF HWY 50 WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SFC
WND GUSTS TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH
SOME AFTERNOON W-SW WINDS NORTH OF HWY 50 WITH PEAK GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE STORMS SOUTH OF HAWTHORNE MONDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE DRY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON
W-SW WINDS. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)