Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM MONDAY...

OVERVIEW:
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN TN AT 18Z WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER UPSTATE SC AT 18Z WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PROGRESSING NORTHWEST INTO
VA/WV THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN NC AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING
(18-00Z)...EXPECT ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WEST OF HWY 1
ACROSS THE W/SW PIEDMONT WHERE INSOLATION AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AN ISOLD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NW PIEDMONT THIS
AFT/EVE IF ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND TRAINS OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.

SEVERE THREAT:
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS AFT/EVE WEST OF HWY 1 AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH A PRIMARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE
MID-LEVEL DRYING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO
RELATIVELY HIGHER DCAPE...PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND SW
PIEDMONT.

TEMPERATURES:
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE LOWER TO MID
50S...COOLEST IN THE WEST/SW PIEDMONT. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LINGERING MID/UPPER LOW
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK/STRENGTH OF
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SHOULD BEGIN
THE MORNING TUESDAY OVER UPSTATE SC. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ENE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... THEN INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO
WOBBLE AROUND OVER VA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE MID/UPPER
CIRCULATION AS IT MAKES THIS TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FINAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHOULD ROUND THE
UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... TRACKING SE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NC DURING MAXIMUM HEATING. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS WILL BE
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING... WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS AIDED BY SURFACE HEATING UNDER
THE DECREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS SMALL BUT CERTAINLY NON-ZERO BOTH DAYS. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STILL FORECAST IN THE 6.5 TO 6.75 C/KM DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH CORRESPONDING MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE DEW POINTS MIX OUT
INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S TUESDAY... COMBINED WITH ONLY MODEST
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD KEEP THE INSTABILITY
SOMEWHAT IN CHECK. THERE MAY BE MORE COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND LIFT AS THE LAST
VORTICITY LOBE PASSES OVERHEAD DURING PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER... VARIABLY CLOUDY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS... DECREASING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

SUBSIDENCE IN THE REAR OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO OUR NW AND THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL AID
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND WARMER DAY THURSDAY. THE SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. THE RETURN OF THE SUN THURSDAY WILL WARM THE
REGION BACK TO BETWEEN 75 AND 80. THESE READING SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE 30 YEAR NORMALS FOR MAY 9TH. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT OF 53-58
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

WARM FRIDAY... BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE UNITED STATES LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXPECTED COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT A MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE
THAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED WITH THE LAST TWO "CLOSED LOW" EVENTS.
CURRENTLY... THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD YIELD THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...
LINGERING IN THE EAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE CHANCE POP SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AIDED BY THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. LOWS
60-65 WITH HIGHS 77-82 FRIDAY... AND 75-82 SATURDAY... COOLING TO
70-75 SUNDAY AND 65-70 MONDAY. THE HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A RANGE OF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...FROM
VFR AT THE FAY TERMINAL TO MVFR AND PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
INT/GSO/RDU/RWI TERMINALS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 21-00Z. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH 21Z WILL BE AT THE RDU/INT/GSO TERMINALS...THEN AT THE
INT/GSO TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-00Z WHERE AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. MVFR CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER AT THE INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS THROUGH
00-03Z THIS EVENING...THOUGH CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
MARKEDLY BY MIDNIGHT. SUB-VFR VISBYS IN FOG OR LOW CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-12Z TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (12-18Z TUE) AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL NC.

LOOKING AHEAD:
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NC TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THU AND
THU NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
838 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCZ009>011-026>028-042-043-078-089-071245-
VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-
SAMPSON-
838 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007-008-024-025-040-041-075>077-083>086-088-071245-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-ORANGE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-WAKE-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-
838 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY APPROACHING
THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-071245-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
838 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS SUCH AS GREENSBORO...WINSTON SALEM...ASHEBORO...AND
LEXINGTON.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF
THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VINCENT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCZ022-039-062015-
GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
340 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS RANDOLPH AND GUILFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 340 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
WEST OF RANDLEMAN...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...RANDLEMAN...ARCHDALE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 85 BETWEEN EXITS 106 AND 126.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8004 3600 7967 3570 7982 3574 8003
      3583 8006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 193DEG 12KT 3582 7990

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCZ021-062115-
FORSYTH-
410 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS FORSYTH COUNTY THROUGH 515
PM EDT...

AT 410 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CLEMMONS...OR ABOUT OVER WINSTON-SALEM...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LEWISVILLE...
WINSTON-SALEM...PFAFFTOWN...PFAFFTOWN...STANLEYVILLE.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 182 AND 203.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3613 8044 3621 8044 3622 8043 3626 8045
      3626 8003 3601 8005 3603 8021 3600 8022
      3600 8032 3598 8040 3598 8043 3601 8042
      3606 8047 3605 8048 3605 8051 3611 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 193DEG 7KT 3606 8033

ELLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
417 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

NCZ008-026-041-042-062115-
FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-JOHNSTON-WAKE-
417 PM EDT MON MAY 6 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS JOHNSTON...WAKE...GRANVILLE
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
KNIGHTDALE...OR ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF RALEIGH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
30 MPH. A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IS MOVING ALONG THE WAKE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTY LINE.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORM INCLUDE...ROLESVILLE...WAKE
FOREST...AND...FALLS LAKE...YOUNGSVILLE...PURNELL...CREEDMOOR.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 540 BETWEEN EXITS 9 AND 26.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN EXITS 10 AND 14.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 264 BETWEEN EXITS 419 AND 429.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING DITCHES...CREEKS...ROADWAYS AND
AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO REDUCE DRIVING SPEEDS TO AVOID
HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 7851 3618 7851 3616 7845 3608 7836
      3575 7828 3562 7845 3595 7873 3601 7870
      3603 7872 3602 7874 3603 7875 3607 7875
      3607 7879 3627 7866
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 153DEG 27KT 3582 7846

ELLIS