Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THIS EVENING...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL ALOFT ARE CURRENTLY CROSSING
WESTERN NC...WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BETTER DPVA APPROACHING
CENTRAL NC. SCATTERED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS WHERE MLCAPE CURRENTLY RANGES FROM
1500 TO 3000 J/KG.  DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO OCCUR
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT DUE TO PERIODS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...BUT SPC MESOANALYSIS IS NOW SHOWING 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
IN THAT REGION AS WELL.  0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR US RELATIVELY WEAK
BUT GREATEST OVER WESTERN NC AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING...TOPPING OUT AROUND 25KT.  IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...EXPECT
GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF US HWY
1...PRODUCING MAINLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  IF
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OR SUSTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION AND A LOW END
WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH CLUSTERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...
AS FORCING EXITS TO THE EAST AND INSTABILITY WANES OR IS WORKED
OVER...CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY COME TO AN END BY AROUND 03Z.
LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES MAY SUPPORT SOME FOG AND
STRATUS...AND RH CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL OVER
EASTERN NC.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US.  A
SHARP PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY..WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.  CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ALBEIT WITHOUT A NOTABLE TRIGGER IN THE MODELS...AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE ITS POSSIBLE THAT
COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS THIS AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE STRONGER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO TO EXCEED
30KT...SUGGESTING MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION.  THE CURRENT SPC DAY
TWO OUTLOOK INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL NC IN A SLIGHT RISK.

REGARDING HIGH TEMPS...GUIDANCE ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY GIVES VALUES A
FEW DEGREES WARM THAN TODAY...WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CWA.  THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 ACROSS
THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOVER IN
THE LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ALOFT AND THE
AIRMASS OVER NC REMAINS HUMID.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

AN ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CHARACTERIZED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND DEEP TROUGHING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...EXPECT ATYPICALLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD IN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. THE EXACT COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF
CONVECTION WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF SMALL AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN RELATION TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FURTHERMORE...THE DEGREE
OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL OR EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION...THOUGH ONE WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME CLOUD
BREAKS AND AREAS OF RELATIVELY STRONGER INSOLATION DURING PEAK
HEATING. EITHER WAY...SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UNUSUALLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COMPENSATE FOR
DECREASED INSOLATION. GIVEN DEEP-LAYER (0-6 KM) SHEAR LIKELY IN THE
35-45 KT RANGE...ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH THE TYPE/EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
CANNOT BE PRECISELY IDENTIFIED AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO A
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...

AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...TROUGHING CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY AND ATYPICALLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CAROLINAS. NUMEROUS SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN THE PRESENCE OF
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (PWAT ~2.00") WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...
MODULATED PRIMARILY BY THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...IN ADDITION TO A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER (GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR) AND ISOLD FLASH FLOODING. IN GENERAL EXPECT HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM THURSDAY...

SKIES ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NC.N
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IN IS/WHEN STORMS WILL IMPACT INDIVIDUAL
TERMINALS IS STILL LOW...PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM KFAY TO
KRWI WHERE HEATING AND MOISTURE AREA GREATEST TODAY.  THE CHANCE OF
OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 00-03Z FROM WEST TO EAST.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PATCHY STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.

OUTLOOK...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE
EASTERN US.  PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH EARLY MORNING STRATUS OR FOG.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KRAX WSR-88D WILL BE DOWN FOR MUCH-NEEDED MAINTENANCE TODAY. KRAX
HAS BEEN IN A SEVERELY DEGRADED MODE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... AND THE
NEEDED REPAIRS WERE DEEMED TO BE CRITICAL. THE TEAM OF TECHNICIANS
WILL MAKE THESE REPAIRS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE
INCONVENIENCE. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-282000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
350 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
535 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S ERWIN               35.31N  78.67W
06/27/2013                   HARNETT            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300755

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
536 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE ANGIER            35.48N  78.73W
06/27/2013                   HARNETT            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300756

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
547 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

NCZ025-040-041-272245-
CHATHAM-DURHAM-WAKE-
547 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WAKE...DURHAM AND CHATHAM
COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CARPENTER...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF CARY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CARPENTER...
MORRISVILLE...RESEARCH TRIANGLE... CARY... RDU INTERNATIONAL... AND
RALEIGH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
PEA SIZE HAIL.
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN EXITS 278 AND 300... INTERSTATE
540 BETWEEN EXITS 1 AND 9... INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN EXITS 1 AND 7...
US HIGHWAY 1 BETWEEN EXITS 98 AND 101... AND THE DURHAM FREEWAY
BETWEEN EXITS 5 AND 7.

DON'T WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR THE
FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND. MAKE
SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

IF ON OR NEAR JORDAN LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE IMMEDIATELY. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR
WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN
AND WIND. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE
WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 3599 7871 3576 7862 3570 7896 3586 7902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 250DEG 17KT 3580 7892

GIH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
629 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE HOBBTON           35.15N  78.22W
06/27/2013                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING THE ROAD. GIDDENSVILLE RD NEAR I-40.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300757

NP