Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
246 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...
THEN PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM SUNDAY...

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION IN STRENGTHENING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THIS AFT/EVE...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG) ASSOC/W STRONG INSOLATION AND A
VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. AS OF 16Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 1 IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG INSOLATION /RAPID EROSION OF CINH/ AND A SMALL AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PER WV IMAGERY AND RAP DATA. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TRACKS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE
COAST...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVE
(IN EASTERN KY AT 16Z) TRACKS SLOWLY EAST IN VICINITY OF THE
NORTHWEST NC AND SOUTHWEST VA BORDER. DESPITE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR (<= 20 KT)...WEAK TO
MARGINAL DCAPE (500-1000 J/KG) AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FEEL
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SVR STORM IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT GIVEN EXCELLENT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND MARGINAL NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE NEAR THE VA
BORDER WHERE DPVA APPEARS MORE LIKELY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...OR 87-92F...HIGHEST IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...OR 70-74F. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...

OVERVIEW:
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON MON/MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY 12Z TUE.

PRECIP CHANCES:
EXPECT A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LARGELY SIMILAR TO TODAY ON MON
AFT/EVE...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6.0-6.5 C/KM IN ADDITION TO A DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG AND DCAPE OF 1000-1250 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING.
FORCING FOR ASCENT MON AFT/EVE WILL CONSIST OF WEAK/SHALLOW LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH...AND
DPVA ASSOC/W SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GIVEN MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OF ~1.75". THE EXACT TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN THAT
IT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE PRECISE TIMING OF SMALL AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES ALOFT...AND PERHAPS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE
REMNANTS OF ANY UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY (IF SUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
OVER THE TN VALLEY) LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO
THE PAST FEW DAYS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST WITH PRECIP CHANCES ~50%. CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE
WITHIN SEVERAL HOURS AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS (PERHAPS AN ISOLD STORM) WILL PERSIST AFTER MIDNIGHT
GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE...MARGINAL NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES:
HIGHS ON MON WILL BE SIMILAR TO BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
TODAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION...IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...OR 88-93F...WARMEST IN THE EAST. LOWS MON NIGHT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

SEVERE THREAT:
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ON MON AFT/EVE WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~20 KT) AND...PERHAPS MORE
IMPORTANTLY...SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIRMASS THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER DCAPE DURING
PEAK HEATING. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK OF A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFT/EVE. IF FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS JUXTAPOSED WELL WITH PEAK HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT IS
LARGELY DELAYED UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON...A BETTER SEVERE WIND
THREAT COULD EMERGE VIA ORGANIZATION ASSOC/W OUTFLOW GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR ROBUST COLD POOLS. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

MORE AND MORE THE LONG TERM IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN COULD BE VERY EARLY ON IN THE
PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A SURFACE
LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC. ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
CWA WITH REINFORCING BOUNDARY OVER THE APPALACHIANS. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT INDICATE THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL STILL
EXIST BUT WILL BECOME INCREASING CAPPED AS THE DAY GOES ON. THE BEST
CONDITIONS FOR ANY KIND OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION SHOULD BE FROM
FAYETTEVILLE SOUTH AND EAST. BACK TO THE WEST A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD...ENFORCING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WITH
TIME. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE BACK
TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS THE
FULL EFFECTS OF THE FRONT WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S NW
TO UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY CENTRAL NC WILL BE UNDER A DOMINANT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND THE VERY STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE STRONG HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT THAT THE WEEKEND COULD
REMAIN DRY BUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
GREATER THAN MIDWEEK. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST BUT STILL FEEL
LIKE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP WEATHER LARGELY DRY THROUGH THE END OF
THE LONG TERM. MAY SEE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S
BY THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS TRENDING TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SUNDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD:
MVFR/VFR CEILINGS RANGING FROM 1500-4500 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
THE INT/GSO TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...THEN EQUAL
CHANCES AT ALL TERMINALS MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN ASSOC/W
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUB-VFR CEILINGS OR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06-14Z MONDAY
MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD:
THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
MON AFT/EVE INTO MON NIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE DAY TUE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN
TERMINALS (RDU/FAY/RWI) BY TUE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE FOR
FOG NEAR AND JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE (08-12Z) WED/THU...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1105 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-021515-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1105 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1.

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
603 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

NCZ022-023-039-040-012300-
ALAMANCE-CHATHAM-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
603 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SECTIONS OF
RANDOLPH...GUILFORD...CHATHAM AND ALAMANCE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM
EDT...

AT 603 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CLIMAX...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF RANDLEMAN...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LIBERTY...STALEY...
SNOW CAMP...SUTPHIN.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.

DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION TO
AVOID HYDROPLANING.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 7983 3596 7926 3571 7927 3580 7985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 276DEG 18KT 3588 7973

WSS

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