Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN OVER OUR REGION ON MONDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH OVER
CENTRAL VA AND WEST APPROACHING OUR TRIAD ZONES. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD RESPECTIVELY
ON OUTFLOWS AND PERHAPS EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH NEW CELLS DEVELOPING
INVOF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 3500+ J/KG
SBCAPE ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA...AND WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FAIRLY MODEST...A PWAT RIDGE OF 2+ INCHES LIES ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS SUGGESTS
LIMITED ORGANIZATION...BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PROFILE AND CAPE...THE
DEEPER CELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING INTENSE DOWNPOURS...
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED STRONG
TO NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GIVEN SW-NE ORIENTATION OF CURRENT
ACTIVITY AND DEEP LAYER SW FLOW...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DIRECTION
OF OUTFLOWS AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME CELL TRAINING...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. IN TERMS OF COVERAGE...WITH
MOISTURE DECREASING AND STABILITY INCREASING SOUTHWARD...THE BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH THE LEAST
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR SE ZONES.

WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN BY MIDNIGHT...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST A LITTLE BEYOND MIDNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS OUR NE ZONES. OTHERWISE...PC SKIES THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SFC
DWPTS ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER-MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

SIMILAR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SE COAST AND THE SFC FRONT REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z
ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ANY REMNANT/LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY'S (SEE NEAR TERM DISC FOR
DETAILS)...THUS THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS...FREQ-TO-EXCESS LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STRONG-TO-SEVERE WIND GUST. PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS...89-92...WARMEST
EAST.  WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANY
LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN
AFT MIDNIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SATURDAY...

A VERY WET PERIOD SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM AS A FRONTAL ZONE
DRAPES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH PERSISTENT 2 TO 2.5 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING TRANSPORTED OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE FLASH
FLOODING AS SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CURRENT 7 DAY
PRECIPITATION FORECAST OUT OF THE WPC CALLS FOR AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH 3-4 INCHES LIKELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...A LITTLE DRIER FORECAST
IS EXPECTED BUT 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD ARE STILL
LIKELY.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA AS WELL AS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ON MONDAY. BY
MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT...BUT MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW DUE TO THE VERY ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...HELPING THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS TO MOVE NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PART OF
THE STATE. IN THE WEST...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH.

A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND KEEP
THE FRONT CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW BIG THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL
BE...IN PARTICULAR IF IT WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT DRY OR
NOT. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 50-75 KT
300MB JET SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN VA. NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THE
PATTERN ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH THE FRONT SANDWICHED BETWEEN IT AND THE BERMUDA
HIGH...BISECTING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN CAMPED ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OFF THE FLORIDA COAST HELPING TO KEEP IT
THERE. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR CONTINUED
OPTIMAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND BEGIN TO
CREATE A WEDGE FRONT THAT WILL NOSE DOWN ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...POSSIBLY SETTING UP AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT IF
NOT BY FRIDAY THAN ON SATURDAY..AS A MESO LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...BRINGING ANOTHER SLOG OF MOISTURE WITH IT.

NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL QUICKLY DROP BACK TO THE LOWER 80S AND
POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 111 PM SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING DURING PERIODS OF SCATTERED
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHICH
WILL LOCALLY REDUCE FLT CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR PERHAPS EVEN IFR IN
THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY
11/06Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN ON SUNDAY WILL MEAN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 11/16Z...THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD:
PATCHY MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS...AND SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE RELATIVE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM..NP
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...NP/MWS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
413 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-110815-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
413 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE THREAT OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN
ACCOMPANY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY.

NCZ078-083>086-088-089-110815-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
413 AM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY.

MWS/CBL

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