River Flood Warning 7, NWS Raleigh, NC

351 
WGUS82 KRAH 111705
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC191-120505-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.130612T2200Z-130616T0834Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130612T2200Z.130614T0600Z.130615T2034Z.NO/
105 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE 
  WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 12:15 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 19.6 FEET FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...FLOODING THREATENS FERRY BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  14.7 TUE 12 PM  16.8  19.1  19.6  18.8  16.0


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95


$$

328 
WGUS82 KRAH 120054
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
854 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...

NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC191-121254-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.130612T2217Z-130616T0400Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130612T2217Z.130614T0000Z.130615T1600Z.NO/
854 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE 
  WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  8:15 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING AND CONTINUE
  TO RISE TO NEAR 19.5 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...FERRY BRIDGE ROAD FLOODS

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  15.5 TUE 08 PM  19.1  19.5  18.4  15.4      

TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95

$$

898 
WGUS82 KRAH 120408
FLSRAH

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1208 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA..

  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC191-121608-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0007.130612T2217Z-130616T0400Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130612T2217Z.130614T0000Z.130615T1600Z.NO/
1208 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 1115 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 19.5 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...FERRY BRIDGE ROAD FLOODS.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     WED   THU   FRI   SAT   SUN

NEUSE RIVER
  GOLDSBORO   18  15.7 TUE 11 PM    16.8  19.1  19.5  18.4  15.4

TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95
        
$$

631 
WGUS82 KRAH 120950
FLSRAH

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC191-122150-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.130613T0557Z-130616T0400Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T0557Z.130614T0000Z.130615T1600Z.NO/
550 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 515 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.5 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVER 
  WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...FERRY BRIDGE ROAD FLOODS.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  16.2 WED 05 AM  18.5  19.4  18.4  15.4      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95
 
$$

605 
WGUS82 KRAH 121257
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
857 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-130057-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.130613T0100Z-130616T0417Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T0100Z.130614T0000Z.130615T1617Z.NO/
857 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT  8:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO RISE 
  TO NEAR 19.4 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...FERRY BRIDGE ROAD FLOODS

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  16.5 WED 08 AM  18.9  19.4  18.5  15.6  13.5


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:


        GOLDSBORO:       42.95



$$

868 
WGUS82 KRAH 130132
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
932 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-131332-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130616T0142Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T0600Z.130614T0600Z.130615T1342Z.NO/
932 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  8:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVERNIGHT AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.2 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...FERRY BRIDGE ROAD FLOODS

&&LITERAL:
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON

NEUSE RIVER
  GOLDSBORO   18  17.4 WED 08 PM    18.6  19.2  18.2  15.5  13.5


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95

$$

466 
WGUS82 KRAH 131015
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
615 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA..
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-132215-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130616T0142Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1010Z.130614T0600Z.130615T1342Z.NO/
615 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  6:01 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS AT FLOOD STAGE AS OF 6 AM THIS MORNING 
  AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY...REACHING 19.2 FEET AFTER 
  MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
  SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...FERRY BRIDGE ROAD FLOODS

&&LITERAL:
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE

NEUSE RIVER
  GOLDSBORO   18  18.0 THU 06 AM    18.6  19.2  18.2  15.5  13.5


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95
$$

167 
WGUS82 KRAH 131315
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
915 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-140115-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130615T1630Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T0600Z.130615T0430Z.NO/
915 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  8:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 19.5 FEET...FERRY BRIDGE ROAD FLOODS

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  18.1 THU 08 AM  18.6  17.4  14.6  12.9  12.3


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:


        GOLDSBORO:       42.95


$$

909 
WGUS82 KRAH 132314
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
714 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA..
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-141114-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130615T1630Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T0600Z.130615T0430Z.NO/
714 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  6:15 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS 
  NEAR THE SR1915 BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  18.4 THU 06 PM  18.6  17.4  14.6  12.9  12.3


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95

$$

ELLIS

000 
WGUS82 KRAH 140121
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
921 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-141321-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130615T1559Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T0600Z.130615T0359Z.NO/
921 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  8:15 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.6 FEET BY 
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
  TOMORROW LATE EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS 
  NEAR THE SR1915 BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    FRI   SAT   SUN   MON   TUE

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  18.5 THU 08 PM  17.4  14.4  12.6  12.1      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95

$$

107 
WGUS82 KRAH 141329
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
929 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-150129-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130615T1930Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T1800Z.130615T0730Z.NO/
929 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  8:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 18.7 FEET BY THIS
  AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS 
  NEAR THE SR1915 BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  18.7 FRI 08 AM  17.7  15.0  13.0  11.8  11.5


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95

$$

718 
WGUS82 KRAH 150113
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
913 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-151313-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130616T0300Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T1500Z.130615T1500Z.NO/
913 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  8:15 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  TOMORROW LATE MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS 
  NEAR THE SR1915 BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SAT   SUN   MON   TUE   WED

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  18.6 FRI 08 PM  16.2  13.8  12.1  11.4      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95



$$

787 
WGUS82 KRAH 150811
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
411 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVER IN NORTH 
CAROLINA..

  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC191-152011-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130616T0300Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T1500Z.130615T1500Z.NO/
411 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT 315 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS 
  NEAR THE SR1915 BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  18.5 SAT 03 AM  16.2  13.8  12.1  11.4      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95
    
$$

632 
WGUS82 KRAH 151334
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
934 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013


...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

NCC191-160134-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130616T0800Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T1500Z.130615T2000Z.NO/
934 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  8:15 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
  THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS NEAR THE SR1915 
  BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  18.3 SAT 08 AM  16.1  13.6  12.1  11.4  11.3

TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95

$$

434 
WGUS82 KRAH 160007
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
807 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY

 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-160037-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130616T0800Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T1500Z.130615T1930Z.NO/
807 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  7:15 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:30 PM SATURDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.6 FEET BY MONDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS 
  NEAR THE SR1915 BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  17.8 SAT 07 PM  13.6  12.1  11.4  11.3      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95
$$

062 
WGUS82 KRAH 160238 CCA
FLSRAH

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1038 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY

 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-160037-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130616T0800Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T1500Z.130615T1930Z.NO/
1038 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  7:15 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:30 PM SATURDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.6 FEET BY MONDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS 
  NEAR THE SR1915 BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  17.7 SAT 10 PM  17.1  15.3  13.3  11.9  11.3
      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95
$$

ELLIS

903 
WGUS82 KRAH 160239 CCA
FLSRAH

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1039 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013



...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH 
CAROLINA...
 
  NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO AFFECTING WAYNE COUNTY

 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...IF YOU ENCOUNTER DEEP WATER WHILE DRIVING...DO NOT 
ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.


&&

NCC191-160250-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-130616T0800Z/
/GLDN7.1.ER.130613T1100Z.130614T1500Z.130615T1930Z.NO/
1039 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR GOLDSBORO.
* AT  7:15 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:30 PM SATURDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.6 FEET BY MONDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 18.0 FEET...MINOR FLOOD STAGE. WATER OVERFLOWS BANKS 
  NEAR THE SR1915 BRIDGE AND UPSTREAM OF THE US117 BRIDGE.

&&
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 7 AM FORECAST STAGES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    SUN   MON   TUE   WED   THU

NEUSE RIVER
 GOLDSBORO        18  17.7 SAT 10 PM  17.1  15.3  13.3  11.9  11.3
      


TO CONVERT THE ABOVE STAGE READINGS TO ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL (FT), ADD
THE FOLLOWING TO THE STAGE:

        GOLDSBORO:       42.95
$$

ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
329 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 AM TUESDAY...

THROUGH LATE MORNING:
THERE MAY BE SOME RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
(ESP WESTERN PIEDMONT) BETWEEN 1-7 AM EDT (05-11Z) THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS CONVECTION...NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND A 900 MB
INVERSION (PER 00Z GSO RAOB) HAVE LED TO VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIN (50-100 J/KG)...LAYER-LIFTING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO REALIZE AT
LEAST SOME AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN ADDITION TO BREAKING
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAP...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/UPSTATE SC AND ALSO WITH THE LATEST HIGH-RES WRF
SIM REF OUTPUT WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT IN THE 06-10Z TIME FRAME.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE ORDER
OF 35-45 KT AND SUPERCELL COMPOSITE VALUES ARE PROGGED AT 1-2 THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WHICH INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT COULD
POTENTIALLY SUPPORT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION DESPITE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BAD DIURNAL TIMING AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET ANY HAIL LET
ALONE SVR HAIL...AND WILL ALSO LIMIT THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. ON THE
OTHER HAND...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRYING HAS INCREASED DCAPE VALUES
TO NEAR 750 J/KG...AND THIS IN ADDITION TO RELATIVELY SPEEDY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WOULD BE A POSITIVE FACTOR FOR DOWNBURSTS. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLD STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG/WEST OF HWY 1
THROUGH SUNRISE AND ALONG/EAST OF I-95 THROUGH 12-15Z...PREVIOUS
EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEGATIVE FACTORS MAY OUTWEIGH THE
POSITIVE IN THIS CASE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT:
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST
OF CENTRAL NC BY 15-18Z. ASIDE FROM A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION EAST OF I-95 AS LATE AS 12-15Z PER ABOVE DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN MID-LEVEL WARMING/DRYING ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES AND THE
ADVECTION OF A MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF A MODIFIED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (STEEPENING H6-H4
LAPSE RATES) TO ADVECT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALOFT...HOWEVER...A THOROUGH LACK OF FORCING AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CIN ASSOC/W THE BASE OF THE MODIFIED EML SHOULD KEEP A LID ON ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SMALL AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN NW FLOW ALOFT
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY INTO WESTERN NC/VA BY 12Z WED
MORNING...THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AND CONFINED WELL
ALOFT IN ASSOC/W STEEP H6-H4 LAPSE RATES AND CIN SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE/DEEP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THIS
AFT THROUGH TONIGHT. ON A SIDE-NOTE...THE LATEST 00Z WRF-NMM SIM REF
OUTPUT SHOWS ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER ILLINOIS BY ~00Z...GROWING
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND PERSISTING ALL NIGHT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH KY INTO EASTERN TN AND FAR WESTERN NC BY 12Z WED MORNING.
THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN NW STEERING FLOW AND THE
PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED EML WHICH WOULD PROMOTE STRONG COLD POOLS
/HIGH DCAPE/ AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE MUCAPE (1000-2000 J/KG)
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...IT WOULD BE
UNLIKELY THAT THE MCS WOULD SUCCESSFULLY CROSS THE MOUNTAINS OR
AFFECT CENTRAL NC GIVEN BAD TIMING AND A LESS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. BASED ON H85 TEMPS
AND THICKNESSES...EXPECT HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FAR
N/NW PIEDMONT TO NEAR 90F SOUTH OF THE TRIANGLE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY:
THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ON WED...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA AND NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN PLACE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WED...
WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM WED AFT/EVE. WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPS AT THE BASE OF THE MODIFIED EML MAY SERVE AS AN
EFFECTIVE CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AND AN INITIALLY DRY SFC-H85 AIRMASS. HOWEVER...WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY WED...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF ISOLD
CONVECTION AROUND PEAK HEATING. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO COME BY ON WED...CONFINED TO EITHER WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH OR A SMALL AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE
IN NW FLOW ALOFT...THE LATTER OF WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. ALTERNATELY...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS IT COULD PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT VIA 30
KT NW STEERING FLOW DURING THE LATE AFT/EVE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING CONVECTION. IN FACT...SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION
DEVELOP...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF A MODIFIED EML...A HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER T/TD SPREAD
/STRONG EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL/...AND ~30 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE
LATEST HIGH-RES WRF-NMM SIM REF OUTPUT GENERATES LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION WED AFT/EVE...AND WILL OPT TO KEEP A DRY FCST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY W/REGARD TO A TRIGGER. MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES W/REGARD TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE MODIFIED EML ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AND THUS
VARIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MAGNITUDE OF H85
TEMPS ON WED...MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT HIGH TEMP FCST WITH GUIDANCE
VARYING BY AS MUCH AS 5-7F. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE 90-95F RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
A ROBUST SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEAST
FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY BY 12Z
THU...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW. GIVEN THAT THE BEST FORCING
ASSOC/W THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...NOCTURNAL COOLING/BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION AND
RESULTING CIN SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT DESPITE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MUCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1500-2000 J/KG. BARRING ANY UPSTREAM MCS
ACTIVITY PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE REGION THU MORNING...WHICH
IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE ATYPICALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S. SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT W/REGARD TO
UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY AT THIS TIME.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFT/EVE...

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT:
AN UNSEASONABLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THU...
CHARACTERIZED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...
NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY (AND AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW) TO TRACK EAST/SE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/VA THU AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT SEASONABLY RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON THU...UNDERNEATH STEEP
(7-7.5 C/KM) MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A MODIFIED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...YIELDING AT LEAST MODERATE IF NOT STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG DURING PEAK
HEATING. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT
(STRONGEST TO THE NORTH)...WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLULAR ORGANIZATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE LATEST GFS/NAM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY...
WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING OCCURRING IN THE MID AFTERNOON
(18-21Z TIME FRAME)...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS A BIT SLOWER WITH
THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THE 21-03Z TIME FRAME...SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND SPECIFICS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC FORCING...STRONG DESTABILIZATION
/ATYPICALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/ AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT...THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT WOULD PRIMARILY SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...SPEEDY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG EVAP COOLING POTENTIAL
ASSOC/W THE MODIFIED EML AND INVERTED-V PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. W/REGARD TO MODE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY NARROW WINDOW FOR ANY
DISCRETE CONVECTION PRIOR TO RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS GIVEN
HIGH DCAPE /STRONG COLD POOLS/ AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH (I.E. PA/NJ) AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE SFC LOW TRACK AND
WARM FRONT AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. AT THIS TIME WILL OPT TO
LEAVE THE FCST AS-IS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES STILL AT 50% AND HIGHS
90-95F...WARMEST EAST. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC
LOW TRACK OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...

COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BEHIND
THE STRONG COLD FRONT...WITH MODESTLY GUSTY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
BREEZES ANTICIPATED AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE TIGHT
GRADIENT FOLLOWING ROBUST LOW PRESSURE. IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND PROVIDES FOR A DRY...STABLE AIR MASS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. COARSE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND
THE LATEST ECMWF ARE DRY AND STABLE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BELOW AN INCH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF ARE
SIMILAR WITH AT LEAST MODERATELY-STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
FLATTENING THE RIDGE ALOFT. AS THE SHORTWAVES HEAD TOWARD CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A
WARM FRONT SHOULD START TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF
WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS...18Z DGEX AND 00Z
CANADIAN...ARE LATER...MORE AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST. THE GFS INCREASES INSTABILITY MARKEDLY SUNDAY FROM A
STABLE AIR MASS SATURDAY...REDUCING LIFTED INDICES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY
AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVES APPROACH...AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY. THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW A WETTER TREND FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. AFTER SOME LOWS LIKELY REACHING THE 50S IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING...LOWS SHOULD BECOME MUCH
WARMER IN A MORE HUMID AIR MASS BY THE END OF THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD.
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND FOR NOW WILL LIKELY FEATURE HIGHS IN THE
NORMAL RANGE. -DJF

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM TUESDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A COMPACT AND POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE TRIAD TOWARD THE TRIANGLE. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACTS IN THE TRIAD THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. DURING THE MORNING...BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR WITH GUSTY
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 20KT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS WINDS LIGHTEN QUICKLY AND BACK
SOUTHWEST.

BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30KT...OR EVEN JUST A LITTLE HIGHER...
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
511 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-120915-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
511 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND COASTAL PLAIN AS A SQUALL
LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

VINCENT