River Flood Warning 5, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
337 PM EDT FRI JUN 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MOVE WELL TO
OUR NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

THROUGH EARLY EVENING: THE LATEST ESTIMATED POSITION OF THE CENTER
OF TS ANDREA BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY IS JUST NORTHWEST OF FAY. THE
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING PERSISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AREA WEST OF THE CENTER... WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THIS RAIN AREA AND THE ONGOING ISSUES
OF HIGH WATER ON SOME ROADS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES... WILL LEAVE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING... ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REMOVE ITS SOUTHERN PORTIONS SHORTLY... BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

NHC'S LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR ANDREA'S CENTER KEEPS IT TRACKING
ROUGHLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 1 AND I-95 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
WILL BRING THE STRONGER WINDS ON THE RIGHT (EAST) SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION WELL WESTWARD INTO THE CWA... PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR
RAINBANDS... WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN REPORTED
(AROUND 40 MPH GUSTS). IN A BROAD SENSE... SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 20-25 MPH... AND PERIODIC GUSTS AS HIGH AS
30-40 MPH... PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR ARE
THE HIGHEST WINDS WE'RE EXPECTING. THIS COULD TOPPLE A COUPLE OF
WEAK TREES AND/OR KNOCK DOWN SOME BRANCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK/BRIEF RAPID SPINUPS MAINLY EAST OF
RALEIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 30
KTS HERE WITH 20-35 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR AND 200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH.
WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL (MLCAPE OF 100-500 J/KG)...
THE PRESENCE OF A CAPE GRADIENT THROUGH THIS AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEATING AND POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ABOUT CONCERN FOR ISOLATED ENHANCED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
WEAK TORNADOES.

FROM MID EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT: THE RAINFALL DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANDREA SHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER BY MID
EVENING. A SECOND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER SC... APPARENTLY TIED TO A
WEAK VORTICITY MAX ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE... IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA BY MID
EVENING... BUT SHOULD BRING ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THEN...
THE MCV NOW CROSSING AL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO WRN
NC TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RESURGENCE OF K-INDEX VALUES
(OVER 35C) AND PRECIP WATER VALUES TRENDING BACK UP TOWARD 1.8 IN.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW... 200-600 J/KG MLCAPE ON THE RAP
MODEL... BUT THIS COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE WEST. AFTER A LULL IN
POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING (DOWN TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS)... WILL HOLD ONTO THE EARLIER FORECAST OF RAMPING POPS BACK
UP TO GOOD CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST CWA FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
ONWARD.

LOWS TONIGHT FROM 66-71 WITH A LINGERING WEAK TROUGH HANGING BACK
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT... KEEPING HIGH DEW POINTS IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS... WHILE THE WEST SHOULD SEE SOME
REDUCTION WITH WEST OR WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHTENING WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT... SO WILL KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST FOR
NOW. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...

FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING WILL HOLD OVER
CENTRAL NC. WHILE THE VORTICITY MAX TRAVERSING WRN NC EARLY IN THE
DAY SHOULD DAMPEN A BIT AS IT HEADS TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY MORNING...
THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION EXPECTED FROM THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
WRN PIEDMONT MAY SPAWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WOULD DRIFT INTO THE
ERN PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN BY AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE CONTINUED DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY... AND MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 800-2000 J/KG MAINLY FROM
HIGHWAY 1 EAST. WILL HOLD ONTO THE TREND TOWARD GOOD CHANCE POPS
WEST AND LIKELY EAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
NAM'S CAPE IN THE MIXED PHASE REGION FROM -10C TO -30C GETS UP TO
600-800 J/KG... SO WE'LL SEE A RISK OF HAIL ALONG WITH A THREAT OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 84-88. WARM AND MUGGY
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DIMINISHING WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND A BRIEF RESPITE
OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES FALLING BACK TO AT OR BELOW 1.0 IN.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY REMAINS HIGH.

FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER PERSISTS WITH WARM
MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW... BETWEEN A STRONG STACKED LOW OVER
THE MIDWEST TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES... AND A DEEP
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WEAK WAVES RIDING
NORTHEAST OVER NC COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF
500-1500 J/KG IN THE EAST ON THE NAM) AND A RESURGENCE OF HIGH PW
(OVER 1.5 IN.) SHOULD INSTIGATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER... JUST AROUND 20
KTS... SO THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS IS MUCH LOWER. WILL
TREND CHANCE POPS BACK DOWN AFTER NIGHTFALL. HIGHS 86-89 AND LOWS
68-72. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...

WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH A BAGGY FRONT TO OUR
NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SURGE OF PW BACK TO NEAR 2 INCHES DURING THE
DAY. INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...BUT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUT
AREA AND PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION.  THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...THROUGH THE ECMWF IS STILL STRONGER AND WOULD SUPPORT A
BETTER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HIGHS IN THE MID 80S EACH DAY.  MUGGY
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST A
BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HUMIDITY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-WEST AND OUR AREA.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...LIKELY REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY...SHOULD IMPACT OUR AREA
BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH FEATURES IS LOW
AT 6 OR 7 DAYS OUT.  HIGHS SHOULD BE GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR THIS AFTERNOON AS TS
ANDREA LIFTS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC AND EVENTUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN AND IFR/LIFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT KRDU...KFAY AND KRWI THROUGH 20-21Z...WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE.  AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE...MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND IF WINDS BECOME
LIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE...BEFORE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER ALABAMA...IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO COMPLEXITY OF OF THESE
SYSTEMS...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY...WITH VFR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT KGSO AND
KINT.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC...AS A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY EVENING.  WARM AND
MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AND AFTERNOON SHOWS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...BLS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
450 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WARRENTON               36.40N  78.16W
06/07/2013  M4.54 INCH       WARREN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TOTAL SO FAR FOR JUNE 7 AS MEASURED AT THE WARREN
            COUNTY EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1300486

DJF