Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Pueblo, CO

663 
WWUS55 KPUB 200151
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
751 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

COC071-200215-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-130620T0215Z/
LAS ANIMAS CO-
751 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM MDT...

AT 750 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRANSON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 10402 3716 10354 3699 10355 3699 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 261DEG 13KT 3703 10383

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
SR

566 
WWUS55 KPUB 200200
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
800 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

COC071-200210-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-130620T0215Z/
LAS ANIMAS CO-
800 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3709 10402 3716 10354 3699 10355 3699 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 261DEG 13KT 3703 10379

$$
SR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
312 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

..POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE TONIGHT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THURSDAY...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS 3 TO 4
THOUSAND J/KG OF SBCAPE AND 40KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH LITTLE CIN. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP TRY TO INITIATE A
FEW CELLS IN THIS AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z TONIGHT. ANY STORM THAT
IS ABLE TO INITIATE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP ALSO PUSH THE DRYLINE SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST
INTO EXTREME EASTERN PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES AS WELL AS CENTRAL
LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ISOLATED IN THESE AREAS.

OVER THE REST OF THE REGION...DEWPOINTS WERE QUICK TO DROP WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING...AND ARE SLOWLY
DROPPING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
THESE AREAS. THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LEAVE IT
INTACT.

THURSDAY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A QUASISTATIONARY CUT OFF LOW
CENTERED OVER IDAHO AND A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
TEXAS. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS WESTWARD.
GUSTY WINDS...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND DRY FUELS WILL PROMOTE EXTREME
FIRE GROWTH IN THESE AREAS. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
BEGINNING AT 11AM FOR THESE AREA.

THE NAM12/GFS INDICATE THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
BACA COUNTY. IF THE DRYLINE SETS UP FARTHER WESTWARD THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED...ADDITIONAL COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR STORM
INITIATION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. -PJC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY.  THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  IT GETS A LITTLE TRICKIER
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...MAINLY PUEBLO...EL
PASO...AND TELLER COUNTIES...WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY COMING UP JUST
SHY OF 25 MPH FOR THE REQUIRED 3 HOUR WINDOW.  HOWEVER WINDS LOOK A
LITTLE STRONGER ON THE GFS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THESE AREAS
IN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.  WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 100 ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH GENERALLY 60S/70S AND 80S ACROSS THE MTS/VALLEYS...RHS
ALL AREAS DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 PERCENT.  FUELS ARE STILL TOO
MOIST OR HAVE GREENED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS EAST OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WITH RECENT RAINFALL SO NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED FOR
THEM AT THIS TIME.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS
ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER ALONG
THIS DRY LINE. ELSEWHERE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POTENTIAL RED FLAG
DAY.

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.  IF FUELS DRY OUT
SUFFICIENTLY...ITS POSSIBLE MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY NEED TO
BE INCLUDED.  CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK VERY LOW...THOUGH ECMWF
HAS THE DRY LINE FLIRTING WITH THE EASTERN BORDER.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY...THIS DOES HELP TO TAPER BACK
WINDS WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SOME.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AT ALL THREE SITES WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND INCREASE AGAIN AT OR AROUND 17Z
THURSDAY MORNING. -PJC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A PROLONGED HOT DRY AND WINDY PATTERN SETS UP
OVER THE DISTRICT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST VOLATILE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY BE A BIT MARGINAL FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WINDS APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH HAINES VALUES RUNNING AROUND
6...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR PLUME DOMINATED
FIRES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED
CRITICAL EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...HOT DRY CONDITIONS MAY CURE
FUELS AND MAKE THEM RECEPTIVE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...THUS
EXTREME CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THIS
HOT DRY PERIOD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOT AND
DRY NONE-THE-LESS. -KT/PJC

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ220>230.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ220>230.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ220>230.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PJC
FIRE WEATHER...PJC/KT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1107 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

COZ058>089-093>099-201715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1107 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF I-25. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE A RATHER STRONG CAP OVER THE PLAINS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A THUNDERSTORM TODAY IS QUITE LOW...BUT IF A STORM WERE TO
INITIATE...IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME QUITE SEVERE...WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

OVER THE MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS...AND I-25 CORRIDOR...METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON.
IF A FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP...IT WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOST DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS WILL BE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WHERE FUELS
ARE MOST CRITICAL. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS ON THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS...FUELS ARE LISTED AS NON-CRITICAL AND WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR CURING FUELS. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED ACROSS
THE WHOLE AREA WITH REGARDS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVE FIRE.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE STRONG WIND AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR WEATHER SPOTTERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS.

81/31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

COZ093-192200-
LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
337 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 336 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIMPAS...OR 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LA JUNTA...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TIMPAS.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

COZ093-097-192230-
LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
400 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  WEST CENTRAL BENT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
  CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...
   THIS INCLUDES...LA JUNTA.

AT 356 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TIMPAS...OR 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA
JUNTA...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LA JUNTA.

PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
552 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

COZ074-088-094-200030-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW
7500 FT-
552 PM MDT WED JUN 19 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 551 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TRINCHERA...OR 22 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TRINCHERA.
  BRANSON.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SR