Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Pueblo, CO

190 
WWUS55 KPUB 162003
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
203 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

COC041-162030-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130616T2030Z/
EL PASO CO-
203 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

AT 157 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED JUST NORTHWEST OF 
PEYTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEYTON AND CALHAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10464 3913 10429 3893 10430 3896 10464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 272DEG 14KT 3905 10453

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

567 
WWUS55 KPUB 162011
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
211 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

COC041-162020-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-130616T2030Z/
EL PASO CO-
211 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3914 10464 3913 10429 3893 10430 3896 10464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 272DEG 14KT 3905 10449

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1112 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS BACA COUNTY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  THERE
HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW ECHOES OVER PROWERS AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY
BUT ARE NOT AMOUNTING TO TOO MUCH.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE
EAST CLEARING THE PLAINS BY SUNRISE.  A WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.  MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED IN BEHIND THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TODAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS ALL
DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  MODELS ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY 18Z...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EAST THROUGH 20Z OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE.  THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE MAY BE
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE...BOTH NSSL AND LOCAL WRFS INDICATING SPARSE
COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS.  HAVE A FEELING
CELLS BE AT LEAST BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THEY SHIFT EAST OFF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  MAIN THREATS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY 00Z.  THE POTENTIAL EXIST
FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST AND
ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE INSTABILITY.  DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES.  THE NSSL WRF IS
INDICATING ONLY WEAK UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM
CORES...WHICH MAY INDICATE ONLY WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH 06Z.  THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WILL END AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND THE MAIN
WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA.  MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING
BY 06Z AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS PROGRESSION.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOL MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...ROUNDS OF STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE...ON THE PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN RETURN TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...

WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
PLAINS THIS PERIOD. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE CLASSIC CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ON THE PLAINS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR. CAPE VALUES ARE FCST TO BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT...1500 J/KG...AND SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 40 KNTS. AS
EXPECTED...BOTH DAYS ARE OUTLOOKED ON THE SPC WEBPAGE. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY MAKE AS FAR WEST AS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. OF THE
TWO DAYS...TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGINFICANT DAY
AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TO
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH ENHANCING TH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER
THE PLAINS.

THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRY
SIDE. ALTHOUGH I DO NOT SEE ABUNDANT DRY THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH CG ACTIVITY TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SAN JUANS WHERE IT HAS BEE ABNORMALLY DRY.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS VERY DRY...HOT AND BREEZY
OVER THE ENTIRE DISTRICT. AS I HAVE THE GRIDDS DRAWN UP...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AND SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. FOR KALS...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FROM 19Z TO 02Z WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED. FOR KCOS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL FROM 19Z TO 00Z WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN RAIN...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. FOR KPUB...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FROM 20Z TO
01Z WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
FARTHER TO THE EAST BY 02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
THRU MONDAY MORNING. STARK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN
JUANS TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
PRODUCT...DENFWFPUB...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...STARK
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

COZ058>089-093>099-171730-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1121 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SPREAD EAST
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...THEY
WILL ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA
COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER
ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS APPROACHING 60 MPH. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERAL DAYS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. OF THE THREE DAYS...
TUESDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVITY AS
A SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS PERIOD. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS BOTH THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR WEATHER SPOTTERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS.

40/13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
106 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

COZ081-084-085-161930-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT-NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-
106 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  WEST CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...   THIS
INCLUDES...WEST CENTRAL COLORADO SPRINGS AND THE WALDO CANYON BURN
SCAR.

AT 1258 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE...IN AND NEAR THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25
MPH...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIGHT RAINFALL OF LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH ON THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NORTHWESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS.
  AIR FORCE ACADEMY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
123 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

COZ081-085-162000-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-
123 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...   THIS
INCLUDES...SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS.

AT 120 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SECURITY...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF COLORADO
SPRINGS...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FOUNTAIN AND FORT CARSON.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
142 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

COZ081-084-085-162015-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7400 FT-NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500FT/PIKE'S PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-
142 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
   THIS INCLUDES...NORTHWESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS.

AT 138 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AIR FORCE ACADEMY...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF
COLORADO SPRINGS...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NORTHWESTERN COLORADO SPRINGS.
  BLACK FOREST.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.