River Flood Warning 16, NWS Pueblo, CO

895 
WGUS85 KPUB 170108
FLSPUB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
708 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
COLORADO...
 
  ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR FOWLER AFFECTING CROWLEY AND OTERO COUNTIES.

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
COLORADO...

  ARKANSAS RIVER AT LA JUNTA AFFECTING OTERO COUNTY.

.THE ARKANSAS RIVER HAS CRESTED NEAR FOWLER AND HAS DROPPED BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER STILL REMAINS HIGH IN THAT AREA. 
THE ARKANSAS RIVER IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE
IN LA JUNTA LATER THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...

STAY AWAY FROM THE BANKS OF RIVERS AND STREAMS.  DURING A FLOOD...
SATURATED BANKS CAN EASILY BREAK OFF AND FALL INTO POTENTIALLY 
DEADLY...FAST FLOWING FLOOD WATER.  

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR THE LATEST 
INFORMATION.  FOR THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...
VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO.  
YOU CAN LINK DIRECTLY TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON RIVERS AND
LAKES UNDER THE HYDROLOGY SECTION OF THE LEFT HAND MENU BAR.

&&

COC025-089-170138-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-130917T1424Z/
/CDMC2.1.ER.130916T1946Z.130916T2115Z.130916T2246Z.UU/
708 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER NEAR FOWLER.
* AT  6:15 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET. 
* FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  4:46 PM MONDAY.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 4.8 FEET BY 
  MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MINOR OVERBANK FLOW OCCURS INTO LOW SPOTS 
  ALONG THE RIVER CHANNEL.

$$

COC089-171308-
/O.CON.KPUB.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130918T1851Z/
/LXHC2.1.ER.130917T0139Z.130917T1800Z.130918T0651Z.UU/
708 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE ARKANSAS RIVER AT LA JUNTA.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  6:15 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND 
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 12.9 FEET BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...MINOR AGRICULTURAL FLOODING OCCURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1248 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 AM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR AND ODEL TRENDS. SEEING SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND CENTRAL MTS. ERN PLAINS
REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS RELATIVELY SHALLOW. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MTS. WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE OUR FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS DRIER AIR BEGINS WORKING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND TELLER
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS...

OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY IMPROVING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE SHORT-TERM ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  SHORT-TERM
METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDES POPS AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS...FOG
AND DRIZZLE.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY NOTING DECREASING COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION(PER LOCAL RADAR/OBSERVATIONS)...ABOVE
SEASONAL EARLY MORNING MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOG...PRIMARILY
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. EXPECT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

LATEST REAL-TIME DATA...NEAR/SHORT-TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT DURING THE SHORT-TERM.

OVERALL...STORMS SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AND/OR INTENSE AS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY(PER PV ANALYSIS) TO PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER STORMS.

IF ONE OF THESE STRONGER STORMS SETS UP OVER ONE OF THE RECENT BURN
SCARS(SUCH AS THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR) OR OVER RECENTLY SATURATED
LOCATIONS...THEN FLASH FLOODING WOULD BECOME POSSIBLE.  DUE TO THIS
POSSIBILITY...WFO HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR PUBLIC ZONES 81/84 AND 85. PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER ALERT
FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING THREATS FROM THIS INTO TONIGHT AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF NECESSARY. THIS HOLDS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
PERSONS NEAR AREA BURN SCARS AND RECENTLY SATURATED LOCATIONS...WHERE
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS LIKELY GREATEST.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT TODAY SHOULD RUN
WITHIN A CATEGORY OF SO OF VALUES NOTED YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNINGS
VALUES...WHICH ARE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH
WILL LEAD TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS MOST AREAS TUE AND AND
WED...AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND DOWNSLOPE BREEZES DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA BOTH TUE AND
WED...THOUGH STORM INTENSITY WILL BE RATHER WEAK GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS TUE/WED WILL PUSH BACK ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS.
COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THU
AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS LOW
LEVEL GRADIENTS SWITCH TO WEAK EASTERLY. GRADUAL WARMING TREND THEN
BEGINS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH A
RENEWED NORTHWARD PUSH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY
ISOLATED AND WEAK MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SAT AND SUN AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

MAIN AVN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE PERSISTENT IFR CIGS AT KCOS.
WITH CONTINUED SE WINDS...AND PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE...CIGS ARE
SLOW TO BREAK UP. SHOULD SEE CLEARING TO VFR BY 20Z. KPUB CLEARING
OUT RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PULLED EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS AT
KCOS...AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD MITIGATE CHANCES OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD STORM
MOVING FROM THE MTS TO VC KCOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME
PC LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
WITH ALL AREAS SEEING VFR ON TUESDAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ081-084-
085.

&&

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1208 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

COZ058>089-093>099-171815-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1208 PM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.

PLEASE REMAIN WEATHER ALERT FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING THREATS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
NECESSARY. THIS HOLDS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR PERSONS NEAR AREA BURN
SCARS AND RECENTLY SATURATED LOCATIONS...WHERE THE FLASH FLOODING
THREAT IS LIKELY GREATEST. ADDITIONAL STORM THREATS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO INCLUDE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE.
THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HAVE LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. PRIMARY STORM
THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH
WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. AGAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE MAIN STORM THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

44/44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 AM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW COLORADO SPRINGS  38.85N 104.85W
09/16/2013  M1.54 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

MN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1005 AM MDT MON SEP 16 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W BOONE               38.25N 104.30W
09/16/2013  M2.53 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

MN