Red Flag Warning 31, NWS Pueblo, CO

611 
WWUS85 KPUB 240207
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
807 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES AND DRY FUELS 11 AM THROUGH 8 PM
MONDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220 THROUGH 230...WHICH INCLUDES THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS... THE LA
GARITA MOUNTAINS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EL PASO...PUEBLO... HUERFANO...FREMONT AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES AND DRY FUELS TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...
WHICH INCLUDES THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...

COZ224-225-241815-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0030.000000T0000Z-130624T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0031.130624T1700Z-130625T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0024.130625T1700Z-130626T0200Z/
SAN LUIS VALLEY-SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE-
807 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...
...RED FLAG WARNING FOR SUNDAY HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
224 AND 225...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAPID 
  RATES OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. 

* HAINES...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

COZ223-241815-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0030.000000T0000Z-130624T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0031.130624T1700Z-130625T0200Z/
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS-
807 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 223...
...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 223...


* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 223.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAPID 
  RATES OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. 

* HAINES...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

COZ220>222-226>230-241815-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0031.130624T1700Z-130625T0200Z/
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE-
FREMONT COUNTY-NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-
PUEBLO COUNTY-HUERFANO COUNTY-WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
807 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
MONDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221...222...226...227...228...
229 AND 230...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...226... 
  227...228...229 AND 230.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 4 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAPID 
  RATES OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. 

* HAINES...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

402 
WWUS85 KPUB 241145
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
545 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES AND DRY FUELS 11 AM THROUGH
8 PM MONDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220 THROUGH 230...WHICH
INCLUDES THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...
THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EL PASO...PUEBLO... HUERFANO...FREMONT AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES AND DRY FUELS TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...
WHICH INCLUDES THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...

COZ224-225-250345-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0031.130624T1700Z-130625T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0024.130625T1700Z-130626T0200Z/
SAN LUIS VALLEY-SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE-
545 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAPID 
  RATES OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. 

* HAINES...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

COZ220>223-226>230-250200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0031.130624T1700Z-130625T0200Z/
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE-
FREMONT COUNTY-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-PUEBLO COUNTY-
HUERFANO COUNTY-WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
545 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES
INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...226...227...228...229 AND
230...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223... 
  226...227...228...229 AND 230.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAPID 
  RATES OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. 

* HAINES...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

156 
WWUS85 KPUB 242102
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES AND DRY FUELS THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220 THROUGH 230...WHICH
INCLUDES THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...
THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND EL PASO...PUEBLO... HUERFANO...FREMONT AND WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES AND DRY FUELS TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...
WHICH INCLUDES THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...

COZ224-225-251315-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130625T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.A.0024.130625T1700Z-130626T0200Z/
SAN LUIS VALLEY-SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE-
302 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES INDICES
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 224 AND 225.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 4 TO 9 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAPID 
  RATES OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. 

* HAINES...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

COZ220>223-226>230-250200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130625T0200Z/
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE-
FREMONT COUNTY-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-PUEBLO COUNTY-
HUERFANO COUNTY-WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
302 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES INDICES
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...226...227...228...
229 AND 230...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223... 
  226...227...228...229 AND 230.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 3 TO 8 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAPID 
  RATES OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. 

* HAINES...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

137 
WWUS85 KPUB 250154
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
754 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY EXPIRES AT 8 PM MDT...

...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES AND DRY FUELS 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225... WHICH INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN SANGRES
DE CRISTO RANGE AND SPANISH PEAKS...

COZ225-251800-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130625T0200Z/
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0024.130625T1700Z-130626T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0032.130625T1700Z-130626T0200Z/
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE-
754 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES AND DRY FUELS 
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225...
...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES
AND DRY FUELS..WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 225.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH RAPID 
  RATES OF FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH. 

* HAINES...6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

COZ224-250300-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FW.A.0024.130625T1700Z-130626T0200Z/
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130625T0200Z/
SAN LUIS VALLEY-
754 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH.

FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH ON TUESDAY WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND EXISTING DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT COULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

$$

COZ220>223-226>230-250300-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0031.000000T0000Z-130625T0200Z/
UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE-
FREMONT COUNTY-EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND LA GARITA MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY-PUEBLO COUNTY-
HUERFANO COUNTY-WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-
754 PM MDT MON JUN 24 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...223...226...227...228...
229 AND 230...

FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT WITH POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX AND WILL BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

$$
SR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
251 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...CONTINUED DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

CURRENTLY...SMOKE FROM THE WEST FORK COMPLEX IS STARTING TO SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.  RADAR HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET WITH A FEW CELLS
BUBBLING NEAR THE SPANISH PEAKS/WALSENBURG AREA.  SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS KEPT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.  TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  CUMULUS HAVE BEEN
PERCOLATING ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE WRF SOLUTIONS AND HRRR WHICH
DEVELOP SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO
SPRINGFIELD AND TRACK THEM EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH 05Z.
UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES ARE WEAK BASED ON THE NSSL WRF SOLUTION AND
SHEARS ARE ONLY RUNNING AROUND 30 KTS SO CURRENTLY THINKING THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS.  THE TORNADO THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO.  EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST INTO KANSAS
THROUGH 06Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.  THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 40 MPH...AND HUMIDITY VALUES WELL UNDER 10
PERCENT.  EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO...BUT PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.  THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY INTO TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.  SMOKE FROM AREA FIRES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND POOR AIR
QUALITY.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE ERN BORDER EARLY MON
EVENING...BUT WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY OUT THERE FOR NOW. DRY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE. IT LOOKS
LIKE LOW LEVEL MSTR OVR THE ERN SAN JUAN AND LA GARITA MTNS MAY BE
A LITTLE HIGHER ON TUE...KEEPING MIN RH VALUES HIGH ENOUGH THAT A
FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR THAT AREA. HOWEVER
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE WINDS WL BE STRONG ENOUGH...ALONG WITH
DRY ENOUGH HUMIDITIES OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY (FIRE ZONE 224) AND
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS (FIRE ZONE 225)...TO WARRANT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT HAVE STRONG ENOUGH
WINDS TO WARRANT A FIRE HIGHLIGHT.

FOR WED AN UPR RIDGE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVR THE WEST CENTRAL
NM...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. STILL LOOKS DRY ACRS THE AREA...WITH MAYBE JUST A
COUPLE SHOWERS/TSTMS POPPING UP OVR SOME MTN LOCATIONS. THE UPR
RIDGE THEN REMAINS OVR THE AREA THU THRU SAT WITH MODELS
INDICATING SOME MSTR TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
JUST A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR AND NR THE MTNS. THE GFS SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING BY TO THE NORTH SAT
NIGHT/SUN FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND SENDING A FRONT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SMOKE IS
STARTING TO SPREAD EAST OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT THE LATE
START HAS KEPT THE DENSITY AND COVERAGE A BIT LESS AND DO NOT FORESEE
IT BEING AN ISSUE AT KPUB OR KCOS TONIGHT.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
DEVELOPMENT AT OR NEAR THE TERMINALS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ220>230.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ223>225.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR COZ224-225.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

COZ058>089-093>099-241715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1114 AM MDT SUN JUN 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN...LA GARITA...SANGRE DE
CRISTO...AND WET MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SPANISH
PEAKS...AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT HIGH VALLEYS AND PLAINS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...AND DRY VEGETATION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR.

IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 3 PM AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WILL BE CROWLEY...OTERO...
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...AND BACA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND HAIL GREATER THAN ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND DRY VEGETATION
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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